For last few months, we have witnessed the recovery, for Wall Street and Bloomberg and CNBC and FOX and other so called OBJECTIVE MEDIA. While, I would love to whole-heartedly believe that, as my future is inextricably tied to the well being of our country, I have serious doubts. The main one is that, I have never yet found any society (and I lived in many), which has succeeded curing the debt problems by more debt. While, Dear Obama tells us, that we are better off for his policies, I cannot see how. Any temporary improvement is totally negated by the amount of debt each citizen is saddled with on the order of 200000/per person for future liabilities in making us feel better last few months. This is like borrowing from somebody 100 dollars and spending on them 10 dollars and telling them: "do not you feel good", while leaving them with the entire 100 dollars gone (to SOPITALISTS). Is it worth it? Is it ok, to have nice dinner at the expense of starving generations? Who is going to pay this debt and how? I have answers of my own you Dear Reader, I am sure will have your own. Here is my answer. YOUR STANDARD OF LIVING will go down to and undercut that of others. That is where these policies lead. It will express in Stocks, Dollar Bonds and everything that has Dollar sign attached to it losing value, until... Well we have the timing for that turnaround preserved for subscribers.
While we are thinking about issues above, markets are doing thinking of their own. I believe they know exactly what is going on. They know things are not so well and started to behave that way exactly on time. As our YBR-Yellow Brick Predictor depicts in the chart below the good times seem to be coming to an end. At least, temporarily so. The second chart shows the YBR performance over last 4 years. Portions of it have been published at this site of http://www.safehaven.com many times in the past. YBR is not a curve fitting system. On the contrary, it is forward looking graph, that predicts what the stock market OUTLINE is going to be like. Remember, it predicts no market levels just the outline of the market and turn dates. We do slight periodic adjustments for more precision, which changes very little to none longer term picture.
Definitions AHAP (Annual High Attraction Point), ALAP (Annual Low Attraction Point)
We believe OIL markets have not too much upside left. If the markets are going to roll down soon then the OIL will follow. Being a tax collection tool though, Manipulations may last to keep the prices high and more taxes collected as Government is hungry for money. The AHAP1 and AHAP2 resistance (reserved for subscribers)
It has entered another surge recently, but we do not believe it will run up too fast too far this time. It will do so in the months and years to come, but this current rally, is probably within the context of a wide-ranging trading market for few months to come. AHAP1, AHAP2 resistance (reserved for subscribers)
While the stocks market are likely to turn down, the FED will keep fighting the decline at all costs and that means more and more money printed, which will undermine the confidence in government bonds here and everywhere. We think 4.3(AHAP1) is likely on 10 year notes by JUNE, Most likely, because "the powers" will turn "EURO death" promotion into "USA death" promotion by then.
Dollar index is 54% tied to EURO, so we may as well talk about EURO when addressing the DOLLAR. The Wall Street and their helpers made big efforts to try and bring the EURO down. EURO governments did not mind either, as the cheaper euro is likely to restart the EXPORT machine of GERMANY/FRANCE and improve trade for other EURO countries. So, we take contrary view and think that EURO may have bottomed at 1.3150=AHAP1 as we have long projected for possible low. There are projections lower, but went long at the ALAP1 and are profitable with stops break even or better.
All in the spirit of the greatest 12 century GEORGIAN poet and philosopher Shota Rustavely who said: "You find what you give, all else is lost."