by James Hyerczyk
After building a support base throughout the day on Tuesday while reacting to the sideways trade in the equity markets, September Treasury Bonds mounted a strong rally late in the session, indicating that they may be poised to launch the start of another leg higher.
For the fourth consecutive day, T-Bonds held the June 27th bottom at 122'05, indicating that there was still buying interest in the contract. At the same time the market attempted to regain an uptrending Gann angle at 123'14. Although the market is currently on the bearside of this angle, it isn't going to take much to turn the T-Bonds bullish again if this angle is recovered. The minimum upside objective is a minor retracement zone at 124'04 to 124'19. If support can be established in this zone, then look for a retest of the contract high at 126'05.
The T-Bonds are dependent upon the stock market for direction at this time. If stocks get hit hard then the money flow out of stocks and into the safety of the Treasuries is likely to launch a strong rally. What could be slowing down the upside action in the Treasuries is renewed interest in the U.K. Gilts as a safe-haven alternative to weakness in the Euro. There was evidence on Tuesday that nervous money was leaving the Euro and flowing into the British Pound. Any new problems arising in the U.K. regarding its debt load is likely to drive additional funds into U.S. Treasuries. This developing bullish scenario is likely to hold as long as support at 122'05 remains intact.
U.S. equity markets tried to mount a strong comeback rally on Tuesday but fell apart into the close. Early in the session stock indices made a recovery from their lows, boosted by bottom-picker demand and driven higher by better than expected U.S. manufacturing data. For a while it looked as if U.S. equity markets would trade higher as traders shifted away from risk aversion and more toward the potentially bullish outlook for the global economy. This scenario didn't hold into the close however as risk fears regarding Europe and a sell-off in oil drilling stocks were too much for bullish investors to overcome.
The weak close put the June E-mini S&P 500 at a minor 50% level at 1071.75. Downside momentum took this price out overnight which could set up a further decline to the .618 price level at 1063.50 later in the day. The new chart pattern is bearish but oversold. A new swing top has been formed at 1106.75. A break out over this price will turn the main trend to up.
Holding the retracement zone at 1071.75 to 1063.50 will help support this market on the opening today, but a failure in this zone indicates more downside pressure is likely.
The stronger U.S. Dollar and news that the International Monetary Fund sold gold is helping to pressure August Gold this morning. This market is still in an uptrend and a strong position, but may begin to weaken if this market begins to break under $1219.50. This would set up a further break to the 50% level at $1209.70.
At this time the chart pattern is still bullish, but condition could shift if the Dollar continues to strengthen. The market may be making a secondary lower top which will indicate a topping formation, but this pattern will not be confirmed until this market breaks below $1209.70.
The main trend is down in September Crude Oil but the market is holding a 50% retracement level at 73.64. As long as this price holds, there is still an outside chance of a rally back to 80.88. The current developing pattern will have to rely on the Euro for the push higher. The supply/demand picture remains bleak so it is going to have to take an increase in demand for higher yielding assets to drive it higher.
The June Japanese Yen is the featured currency today. The Yen is trading lower, pressured by the news of the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama. Traders are dumping the Yen which means money has to be flowing into another safe haven currency.
The Yen is under pressure on speculation that the next prime minister will be Naoto Kan who favors a weaker currency.
Technically, the June Japanese Yen is in a weak position after breaking a 50% support level overnight at 1.0954. This set up the break to the current overnight low at 1.0854. A break under this price could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
