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Banking Reform Pushing Financials Lower and Silver Higher

by the sweeping overhaul and takeover of banks. Banks have been under pressure from a continuing recession, high unemployment, a weak housing market and now more government oversight and audits. This does not help a recovery process for housing or financials. These are two industries where I need to see strength to believe in a real economic recovery.

XLF Weekly Chart

Financial are under a lot of pressure. In the past 6 months, the financials have had 7 major weekly distributions verse 1 major accumulation which leads me to believe that this bearish crossover could lead to a major financial decline. Notice how the financials when it broke into new 52 week highs it was on low volume which means it didn't have the momentum to really hold those highs. This is also evidenced by the declining momentum indicators. The financials had 5 major weekly sell off in the 8 weeks of April and May. The bearish crossover pattern plus the failure of the financials to hold the 200 day leads me to be long term bearish.

On the other hand Silver, Gold and Miners all appear to be reaching new breakout points.

Silver Weekly Chart

Silver is very close to a 3 year breakout and I would not be surprised if over the next couple of weeks silver makes a move into new 36 month highs. If this move breaks $19 on silver, which is a major resistance level my target would move to $30 an ounce. Silver has shown increasing demand as it has found support at the rising trendline support and is at the verge of a major breakout.

The connection between the financials and silver is showing that more investors are moving away from investment vehicles which are exposed to debt, government regulation and weak economic growth. Investors want their assets in real money which is silver and gold. Keep an eye on $19 silver and a breakdown of XLF past $14.

Disclosure: Own shares in silver mining stocks.

 

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