It was 2 weeks ago that we last visited and I, in my Commentary, (below) suggested that within my work / methodology I was hearing a (Buying Opportunity) whisper - which was getting - VERY LOUD.
Well it still is!
Specific Company and ETF - Buy - Recommendations will be provided, just like in my April 8th Update / Recommendations. (You might remember that those were Short - Recommendations.)
Please - SCROLL DOWN to my: Current Market Commentary -- and perhaps skip the following - Narrative.
For me, Investing Wisely simple boils down to two questions - What and When?
With the incredible quantity of chatter available on the Internet and with thousands of investments being touted as - worthy of your investment money - what is a serious Investor to do in times like this and beyond?
Clearly - Investment risk must be assessed carefully, therefore to take a long or a short position needs more than just good fundamentals or technical analysis that seems to make sense.
I read an enormous amount of material each day, most of which is good, however it is rare to find even a single specific recommendation or even generic recommendation such as gold, energy or technology, etc. Excellent Analytics and Specific and Timely investment decisions are what makes you money, and I believe loading one's head with tons of details deters from that goal. Further, when I do find a recommendation or two, in my reading, there has never been an offer to tell me and others when to close out the recommended transaction without a fee - or something similar!
* Stock Brokers want to sell you something but never call and say - it'stime to sell. Hum!
* Mutual Funds keep you invested - rain or shine and love charging their annual fees, which are much higher than advertised. They say - "read the prospectus." Hum!
For over 50+ years I have continued to develop and sharpen my skills of -- Sector, Industry Group, Commodity, Company and ETF -- Rotation.
My Rotation Methodology is simply - Cycle Analytics. With this tool it is rather easy identifying the specific Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities and their (Component Companies and ETFs) that are in favor. And as a result from these studies / analytics, we also (by default) learn - what securities (Companies and ETFs) are not in favor. That's equally Important!
With all the advice that is offered on a daily basis, over these many years, I have found it impossible to cross-reference that - constant flow of advice and opinions with anything tangible that says - this is a solid reason to own a given / specific security.
So, over the coming months, I would like to share some specific Bull Market recommendations as well as Bear Market recommendations, But, you should know that I believe, (luke warm - doesn't work) -- for you to make this work profitably for you over the long term, you must personally have / possess two very precious personal attributes - Patience and Discipline.
In sharing this incredible Methodology of knowing whether the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs - are worthy of your investment money - I have found that - all you need to know is -- if they (Securities) are - Going-To or Coming-From. This is what securities "Rotation" is all about. So, for example, from a Research / Analytics point of view - it's all about being able to identify - What (which ones) and When (time and date) they (specific securities) change from Going-To to Coming From. That's how I go about identifying - Tops and being sure that - the Inflection Point - is accurate for that specific security at that specific time. (It's just the opposite for identifying - Bottoms).
Understand that, I believe, each security has it's own signature and it's rate and time table of change is different from most all other securities. And, each security often changes their signature just to snafu both you and the Analyst. That's why you, quite likely do not enjoy a high percentage of profitable transactions. This is to say - all the Companies / ETFs in a Sector or even an Industry Group do not move in unison (Wall Street and Mutual Funds want you to believe they do!), month after month and year after year. However there are those (a few) that do, allow you to clearly read their signature, and they can be readily identified long before decision day to invest.
Inflection Points - both Bull and Bear, within the General Market, only occur, on average, 3 - 5 times per year. When they occur, we often have a great deal of lead time for preparation and very little time to respond or implement. At these critical Inflection Points you simple do not have the time to dink around looking at your investment tools, or reading what Harry or Sam think, as a luxury or a form of procrastination. Harry / Sam, and their peers have screwed up more opportunities for profitable investing than you can imagine. This is true on the Buying / Shorting side and also true on the Selling / Covering side.
My Methodology for Wise Investing, has preformed brilliantly for me, for many years and is anything but a "Trading" approach. It's repeatability is very consistent and accurate but does not occur on yours' or my time clock.
So, I invite your to take the time to follow along and you will be both amazed and profitable pleased.
From time to time and with the cooperation of Safe Haven, I will publish this (same) article with specific recommendations and/or and updated commentary. If I have nothing to recommend, which is often - I will provide an Update about every two weeks.
(for July 5th:)
Repeating: I remain a Bear waiting to position the balance of my 100% CASH.
However, for those of you who are following (getting acquainted with my work / methodology) -- I expect to take some - Near- Term (1 - 6 weeks -- maybe longer) Long (Buy) Positions (very soon) before my resuming focus on the down-side.
A number of those specific Recommendations will be posted - here in SafeHaven.
So the General Market keeps Churning - LOWER. That's good for Buying. Have you ever thought that if a Company or ETF has an upside objective that the lower the price of a Company or ETF goes the potentially greater the projected - percent gain? Let's say Apple (AAPL) has an upside of $300. At $250 there is a potential for a 20% profit, but at $230 there is a potential for a 30% profit! Just food for thought.
I have been saying in my Blog that - the Market is clearly deteriorating on a very Near-Term basis and setting up for a Buying Opportunity. Well the deterioration has, over the past couple sessions, turned to accumulation and there are quite a number of Sectors and Industry Groups participating.
Above I introduce you to the word Rotation. Rotation analytics is my secret to how to identify Tops and Bottoms and it provides me with a "Leading Indicator(s)" to know both the important - What and When to Buy or Short.
For many years CASH has been my Safe Haven / Safe Harbor. When there is a storm, like the one we are in, I either am short or in Cash. Well, we took good profits, that are in the Bank, shorting in April and now it's - having the patience and discipline to wait for the coming Buying Opportunity. That's how it works for me and it is really rather simple!
I'll Update this opinion promptly if things change - very likely we will have a bit more Churning, both up and down, so expect to see some Recommendations posted here in SafeHaven rather soon.
Positive Sectors (Rotation) - include: Selective -- Consumer Goods / Services, Emerging Markets, Basic Industries, Health Care and Energy.
As a Note / Warning to my Sector / Industry Group Rotation work: Rotation is the essential key / foundation to profiting in the current Marketplace - and has been so for, for me, a long time. So, I strongly emphasize the above word - "Selective." Even within my " In Favor" Industry Groups the Companies and ETFs are scattered and appear to be heading in many different directions and some of those are / will be directions are not good for your bottom line - even when you are within the correct cycle of the General Market and Sector!
Dart-Board investing, even when you have the WHEN going for you, can and often does, cause disappointments!!!
Is Anybody - Listening along with me to the Marketplace as to Where we Are?
- The Stock Market is going to be very, very rough on both -- Buy and Hold & Mutual Fund Investors.
- In the coming weeks / months -- Traders are going to have their heads handed to them on a plate.
- It is not going to be a pretty market again for quite some time. It is the most volatile and bifurcated marketplace I have worked with in a long time.
If you would like the Sale / Cover side to my specific Recommendations, Information about my Work, or of me Personally - just send an Email and I will respond promptly.
I also maintain a conservative yet proactive Blog focused on Rotation which I will make available to those of you who may wish to be in contact with me It is Updated - 2 - 3 times per week.
However, please understand that it is important to me to know a bit about you -- so, I will ask you share with me a little personal information and a little investment background with your goals and objectives - just to get acquainted. Time will tell if there is a fit with what I do and your investment needs and objectives.
Just click on my name for my Email Address.
Thank you for your interest in my work, methodology and on going record.
Smile, have fun - Investing Wisely,