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S&P500 Index

This is the trend since the July low one year ago. This move down has shown three thrusts down or the classic Elliott wave configuration for a low. The retracements or rallies have been large during this downtrend indicating the pattern of trend has not been strong even though it has dropped over 15%. When retracements are large false breaks are possible. Fast trends and trend reversals come from "false breaks" or breaks to new highs or lows above or below "OBVIOUS" resistance or support that fail to follow through. In this instance the rally has moved well above the previous swing low and that is bullish. The low was a 1/8 extension down as show last report and that is the normal price for a "false break" low. The normal counter trend in a fast trend is one to four day and this has rallied 3 days with the last day a smaller range indicating some resistance. Exceeding the fourth day is critical. The calculated resistance at 1/3 to 3/8 of the range down is 1080 to 1090 and that is important. Exceeding 4 days of rally will indicate a low is in place and a selloff should produce a higher low. There is a turning point on the 13th and a higher low around the 24th would be bullish. There are still only four alternatives: a 30 or 45 day fast run to a secondary high around 1180 followed by a bear trend; a struggling move up to 1247 for a top in September or October followed by a two year bear trend. A struggling movement that stays inside the last range down creating a distribution pattern with 3 lower highs. Or a new low to around 950 followed by a 6 month rally and then a bear trend.



Two weeks ago we forecast a top in gold between the 28th June and 3rd July and that high occurred on the 28th. We also indicated it would not be any higher in price since the price targets had been hit.

The objectives for a decline are 1122 at ¼ major range which keeps the uptrend in a strong position for another rally so there needs to be caution with that support. Then 1/3 to 3/8 at 1075 though 1051 as the ultimate objective. The only problem with my forecast is the last low was only 3/8 retracement of the last leg and that small retracement does keep the last leg up intact. But I expect that to be broken and test 1157, bounce to around 1183 and resume the downtrend. But it must break this current support which I didn't believe would stop the move down. Timing dates are July 17, August 4th for a possible trend completion and August 16th.


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