Just last week I said that the (Buying Opportunity) whisper, I mentioned 3 - 4 weeks ago - was getting - VERY LOUD.
Well it still is!
The nice 4 day rally (bounce) last week, is part of the bigger picture of identifying a meaningful Buying Opportunity.
Within my work, I need a Conformation before I commit to Buying or Short-Selling. This bounce and perhaps a bit more is what is needed to Buy -- and then followed by a very brief pull-back.
Specific Company and ETF - Buy - Recommendations will be provided, just like in my April 8th Update / Recommendations. (You might remember that those were Short - Recommendations. )
Please - SCROLL DOWN to my: Current Market Commentary -- and perhaps skip the following - Narrative.
For me, Investing Wisely simple boils down to two questions - What and When?
With the incredible quantity of chatter available on the Internet and with thousands of investments being touted as - worthy of your investment money - what is a serious Investor to do in times like this and beyond?
Clearly - Investment risk must be assessed carefully, therefore to take a long or a short position needs more than just good fundamentals or technical analysis that seems to make sense.
I read an enormous amount of material each day, most of which is good, however it is rare to find even a single specific recommendation or even generic recommendation such as gold, energy or technology, etc. Excellent Analytics and Specific and Timely investment decisions are what makes you money, and I believe loading one's head with tons of details deters from that goal. Further, when I do find a recommendation or two, in my reading, there has never been an offer to tell me and others when to close out the recommended transaction without a fee - or something similar!
* Stock Brokers want to sell you something but never call and say - it's time to sell. Hum!
* Mutual Funds keep you invested - rain or shine and love charging their annual fees, which are much higher than advertised. They say - "read the prospectus." Hum!
For over 50+ years I have continued to develop and sharpen my skills of -- Sector, Industry Group, Commodity, Company and ETF -- Rotation.
My Rotation Methodology is simply - Cycle Analytics. With this tool it is rather easy identifying the specific Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities and their (Component Companies and ETFs) that are in favor. And as a result from these studies / analytics, we also (by default) learn - what securities (Companies and ETFs) are not in favor. That's equally Important!
With all the advice that is offered on a daily basis, over these many years, I have found it impossible to cross-reference that - constant flow of advice and opinions with anything tangible that says - this is a solid reason to own a given / specific security.
So, over the coming months, I would like to share some specific Bull Market recommendations as well as Bear Market recommendations, But, you should know that I believe, (luke warm - doesn't work) - - - for you to make this work profitably for you over the long term, you must personally have / possess two very precious personal attributes - Patience and Discipline.
In sharing this incredible Methodology of knowing whether the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs - are worthy of your investment money - I have found that - all you need to know is -- if they (Securities) are - Going-To or Coming-From. This is what securities "Rotation" is all about. So, for example, from a Research / Analytics point of view - it's all about being able to identify - What (which ones) and When (time and date) they (specific securities) change from Going-To to Coming From. That's how I go about identifying - Tops and being sure that - the Inflection Point - is accurate for that specific security at that specific time. (It's just the opposite for identifying - Bottoms).
Understand that, I believe, each security has it's own signature and it's rate and time table of change is different from most all other securities. And, each security often changes their signature just to snafu both you and the Analyst. That's why you, quite likely do not enjoy a high percentage of profitable transactions. This is to say - all the Companies / ETFs in a Sector or even an Industry Group do not move in unison (Wall Street and Mutual Funds want you to believe they do!), month after month and year after year. However there are those (a few) that do, allow you to clearly read their signature, and they can be readily identified long before decision day to invest.
Inflection Points - both Bull and Bear, within the General Market, only occur, on average, 3 - 5 times per year. When they occur, we often have a great deal of lead time for preparation and very little time to respond or implement. At these critical Inflection Points you simple do not have the time to dink around looking at your investment tools, or reading what Harry or Sam think, as a luxury or a form of procrastination. Harry / Sam, and their peers have screwed up more opportunities for profitable investing than you can imagine. This is true on the Buying / Shorting side and also true on the Selling / Covering side.
My Methodology for Wise Investing, has preformed brilliantly for me, for many years and is anything but a "Trading" approach. It's repeatability is very consistent and accurate but does not occur on yours' or my time clock.
So, I invite your to take the time to follow along and you will be both amazed and profitable pleased.
From time to time and with the cooperation of Safe Haven, I will publish this (same) article with specific recommendations and/or and updated commentary. If I have nothing to recommend, which is often - I will provide an Update about every two weeks.
Current Market Commentary :
Repeating: I remain a Bear waiting to prudently position the balance of my 100% CASH.
But before Shorting again there will be a meaningful rally. For those of you who are following (getting acquainted with my work / methodology) -- I expect to take some - Near- Term (1 - 6 weeks -- maybe longer ) Long (Buy) Positions (very soon) before my resuming focus on the down-side.
A number of those specific Recommendations will be posted - here in SafeHaven in a Special Format -- when I believe those Recommendations to be prudent.
Above I introduced the term - Conformation. There are a number of excellent Technical Analysis tools I use that give me those important Conformation(s) just before I Buy or a Short-Sale. So, this past 4 days (and perhaps a bit more next week) of this current 4 day rally actually fits nicely into my set of Conformation of tools. Following that, I will be looking for a brief or perhaps a very brief pull-back - hopefully next week.
For me, the use of Conformations are what separates the professional from the average Financial Analyst / Investor. The professional will wait for the right pitch and not swing on anything marginal. Remember - the "right pitch" has a broader area over the plate for the super-stars with a high batting average, than . . . I would not claim to be a super-star, but I get a lot of hits.
My expected pull-back may be hidden (not super-clear on the Charts) this time around. My NY Composite Index is saying it's a go now --- and my Nasdaq Composite Index is saying, be patient and wait for those Conformations you like so much. Hum. I generally lean toward the Nasdaq at times like this and it is clearly the prudent thing to do.
My Rotation models are all confirming the Nasdaq story.
I'm repeating last week's comments on Cash. For many years CASH has been my Safe Haven / Safe Harbor. When there is a storm, like the one we are in, I either am short or in Cash. Well, we took good profits, that are in the Bank, shorting in April and now it's all about - having the patience and discipline to wait for the weather / storm to clear and a Buying Opportunity. That's how it works for me and it is really rather simple!
I'll Update these opinions and thoughts - promptly if things change - very likely we will have a bit more on the up-side, early next week and then a mini - pull-back. At that point I will be a bold Buyer.
Just so you know, if the coming pull-back is severe because of news, like next week's beginning of Earnings season - can provide - - this forecasted Buying Opportunity will be put on hold for a second time.
In-Favor Sectors (Rotation) - include: Selective -- Emerging Markets, Basic Industries, Health Care and Energy.
(Note the changes in just this past week.) This "Rotation" stuff is dynamic and must be monitored frequently.
As a Note / Warning to my Sector / Industry Group Rotation work: Rotation is my essential key / foundation to profiting in the Marketplace - and has been, for me, a very long time. So, I strongly emphasize the above word - "Selective."
Even within my " In Favor" Industry Groups the component Companies and ETFs -- are scattered and appear to be heading in many different directions. Some of those "directions" are not good for your bottom line - even when you are within the correct Cycle of the General Market and Sector!
Dart-Board investing, even when you have the WHEN going for you, can and often does, cause disappointments!!!
Is Anybody - Listening along with me to the Marketplace as to Where we Are?
The Stock Market is going to be very, very rough on both - - Buy and Hold & Mutual Fund Investors.
In the coming weeks / months -- Traders are going to have their heads handed to them on a plate.
It is not going to be a pretty market again for quite some time. It is the most volatile and bifurcated marketplace I have worked with in a long time.
I believe, anyone writing about Investing in the Stock Market (Stocks / ETFs, etc.) has both an obligation of integrity and a unique test to pass - with and for all of you ! It's not enough for me to propound my Methodology or share with you - why my Rotation is so successful, etc. - my stuff will either fit in their / your logic (Investment Philosophy) - or it won't. It's that simple!
Further, my postings must help you make money. So, it's been a goal of mine for many years to devise an honest way for you (the private Investor) to accurately track the performance of my Recommendations - SafeHaven provides that opportunity for me.
That's why, I openly make Recommendations for you to follow. I do ask that you contact me, if you would like the Sell, or in the case of short-selling, the Cover side of my Recommendations.
When I Sell / Cover a Company or ETF -- I notify you by Email, just as if you were a Client. (I also track, on an Excel Spreadsheet, the performance of each one of my Recommendations by - Time-frame Grouping.) You can get a copy by request or from time to time I will publish - The Record - here in SafeHaven.
One final caveat. I want to make very clear that I am seeking Clients. I do not intend to freely publish my Recommendations - forever. And - you as an individual investors need to do your own careful asset allocation to determine which of these Companies / ETFs -- I Recommend -- if any -- fit your investment philosophy and style of investing.
So far, with SafeHaven I have only one completed Grouping of investments.
Those were as of April 8th.
The past is wonderful to talk about and I have over 50 professional years of a "past." They were very profitable - the last 40+ years with an average of over 19 %. That's the past -- the future is my focus.
If you would like the Sale / Cover side to my specific Recommendations, Information about my Work, or of me Personally - just send an Email and I will respond promptly.
I also maintain a conservative yet proactive Blog focused on Rotation which I will make available to those of you who may wish to be in contact with me. It is Updated - 2 - 3 times per week.
However, please understand that it is important to me to know a bit about you - - so, I will ask you share with me a little personal information and a little investment background with your goals and objectives - just to get acquainted. Time will tell if there is a fit with what I do and your investment needs and objectives.
Just click on my name (below) for my Email Address.
Thank you for your interest in my work, methodology and on going record.
Smile, have fun - Investing Wisely,