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CNBC Squawkbox Europe

LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

S&P500

Two weeks ago I indicated if the rally could exceed 4 days we could anticipate a higher low on the next selloff. I also indicated there were two days that were important vibrations in time, the 13th and 24th. The 13th was a high and the 24th is today although the cycle is Saturday and could leave Friday/Monday as a high day. The index is now in a position to trend up if it can get past this weekend and the 90 day cycle from high. If the index can hold the last low on a test or if the index can move up past this weekend then the trend is up for 60 days or out to September 1st. So if the trend is temporarily up it needs to move past the 90 cycle from high to probe it. Then it should run a minimum of 45 days (August 15th) and very likely 60 days to first week in September.

When we look at the pattern of trend there is a three thrust pattern into low and a "false break" low. The normal counter trend in a trend is one to four days and this found low on the 4th day and at 50% of the advance. All that is setting up as a trend but it needs to exceed the 90 day time window from high to confirm the possibility of trending up.

LET'S LOOK AT A GOLD DAILY CHART

Gold

We had forecast the top and two weeks ago were a bit surprised the market has not broken the 1185 level but were still convinced that would occur. The break occurred but the market moved back above the level immediately after the break and NOT what I wanted to see. The move up from the break has been weak but this is not how I expected gold to "trend." This should stay below 1202 if trending down so another up day and we can assume my forecast is wrong. I still believe this is a top of some consequence but if it does not show a solid trend down but struggles down after struggling up indicates there may be something wrong with the downtrend. Friday needs to be a high day for a continuation of the move down to 1154 to 1157 or it may NOT be trending down. If it is going down it needs characteristics of a down trend.

 

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