This is a followup from the June 1st update.
Dollar
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The dollar has turned down again, having briefly crossed the 200 DMA. Before the election, there is no incentive for the administration to have a strong dollar as long as bonds hold ground. However judging by the Swiss Francs, the downside of the dollar may be limited.
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Bonds
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30 year bonds crossed the 200DMA. I am netural on bonds. There are too many factors affecting it - The dollar, economic reports, inflation perception, central bank buying (domestic and foreign) to name a few.
Foreign Markets
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Foreign markets are consolidating for a move. My gut feel is down.
US markets:
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S&P 500 is above 200 DMA. The commercials are net short a measly 15,000 S&P contracts. I am only turning negative when S&P 500 breaches 200 DMA and commercials are net short 50,000+ contracts.
Gold
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The 200 DMA should serve as a floor. I have a target of $420 within a month.
Gold Stocks
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The chance of XAU re-testing 80 is low. Once we take out 96 (200 DMA), new high is within reach by the end of summer.
Oil
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Inconclusive. Currency action and inflation perception will control oil price.
Gold/Oil:
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The two times that the ratio dipped below 10 (Oct 01 and Mar 03), XAU followed up by posting 80%+ gains in less than 7 month. The ratio (gold/crude oil) failed to cross the 11 resistance level but I expect the low of 9 to hold.
Silver
I am very bullish of silver. The last time the commercials had such a small short position (~60,000) was Oct 03, when silver started to make a run from $5 to over $8. We could be in for major fireworks this summer. Solid support for silver is at $5.5.