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Steve Bauer

Steve Bauer

Steve owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

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Investing Wisely -- Update with Recommendations and Personalized Follow-Up

Brief Intro:

If you have been following - my focus has been to wait for a mini - Pull-Back as one of my Conformations needed for a Buying Opportunity.

I suspect that the "Buying Opportunity" is shifting to a Short-Sale / Inverse ETF Opportunity. Now, it's a mini - rally that will trigger some Recommendations.

So, with that in hand ...

Specific Company - Shorts and Inverse ETF - Buy - Recommendations will be provided, just like in my April 8th Update / Recommendations. (You might remember that those were Short - Recommendations - too.)



Commentary:

Repeating: I remain a Bear waiting to prudently position the balance of my 100% CASH.

It is starting to look like the Bear will come before the Bull. And that is no Bull.


Rallies and Pull-Backs! -- That's what it is all about.

Within my Methodology there are several tiers / cycles of each -- Rallies for Buying and Pull-Backs for Shorting. Primary, Secondary - - third / fourth level tiers (Cycles) and so on. There is not enough profit potential in third / fourth or more - level tiers (Cycles) so - I use them as a technical set-up (part of my Conformation Methodology) to identify Buying and Shorting -- Primary and Secondary Cycle / Investment Opportunities. Historically -- Primary Cycles occur (Bull & Bear) 3 - 5 times per year. Historically Secondary Cycles, which include the Primary Cycles occur (Bull & Bear) 5 - 7 times per year. This year, so far, is producing more and has become more of a Traders Market.

I believe my use of Conformations is both -- absolutely necessary if you want consistent annual profits -- and what separates the average Investor / Financial Analyst from on going success.

The same is true for having the patience and discipline to wait for the Primary and Secondary Cycle to begin. You could say - this is how I go about identifying - - Tops and Bottoms.


Bottom Line:

  • Patience and Discipline - waiting for Conformations is necessary and it works!

  • The Market is now (very possible) setting up for another major Pull-Back but - - Up til this Posting - I thought there would likely be a meaningful rally preceding it - maybe not!

  • Now, if we get a mini-rally -- a maxi-pull-back should occur in the very near-term.

  • Volatility may not be showing up on VIX - lately, but it is clearly - alive and well. My opinion is that - like preceding the late April - Pull-Back it (VIX) might just start turning up and get back to it's crazy self.


I'll Update these opinions and thoughts - promptly if Market Conditions change.

I will also share / remind you, in each Posting that -- while my mini - forecasts are (over the years) very accurate - there are many Variable Market Conditions (going's on - stuff) that can delay an Investment Opportunity - Long or Short. Unfortunately, given half of a chance, the dynamics of the Marketplace will most often create a delay! But, sooner or later ...


In-Favor Sectors: None for this Posting.


As a Note / Warning to my Sector / Industry Group Rotation Work: Rotation is my essential key and is foundational to profiting in this Marketplace. So, I strongly emphasize the above word - "Selective." Even within my "In Favor" Sectors and Industry Groups the component Companies and ETFs -- are widely scattered and appear, on the Charts, to be heading in many different directions. Obviously, some of those "directions" are not good for your bottom line - even when you are within the correct Cycle!


If you would like:

  • the Sale / Cover side to my specific Recommendations for SafeHaven

  • information about my Work / Methodology / Services, or of me Personally

  • my performance record while with SafeHaven

- - - just send me an Email and I will respond promptly - - -


I also maintain a Blog focused on My Rotation Model which I will make available to those of you who may wish to be in contact with me. It covers - - My General Market Commentary - and - Sector Rotation Models and is Updated - 2 - 3 times per week.

Important! Please understand that while I am sharing with you - my stuff -- it is important to me to know a bit about you and - your stuff - - so, I will ask you share, with me, a little personal information and a little investment background with your goals and objectives - just to get acquainted. Time will tell if there is a fit with what I do and your investment needs and objectives.

Just click on my name (below) for my Email Address.

Thank you for your interest.

Smile, have fun - Investing Wisely,

 

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