• 266 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 270 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 272 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 276 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 276 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 277 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 278 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 279 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 283 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 283 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 284 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 286 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 286 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 290 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 291 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 291 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 293 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 293 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 297 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 298 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive

With news of a compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts, recent strength in the U.S. dollar, and signals from China it may raise interest rates, it is a good time to check on the health of weak-dollar assets, such as commodities (DBC). Commodities, especially hard commodities like copper (JJC) and gold (GLD), are often used as a way to protect purchasing power during periods where concerns about future inflation are elevated.

In general, commodities tend to have a tailwind when the U.S. dollar is weak, and a headwind when the greenback strengthens. The extension of the Bush tax cuts could add as much as half a percentage point to U.S. GDP in 2011. Stronger economic growth in the U.S. could propel the dollar higher and put some pressure on commodities.

If we compare the early stages of the last bull market in commodities to the current bull market, it allows us to better assess the ongoing investment merit of copper, silver (SLV), gold, wheat, etc. MACD is a technical indicator used to monitor the strength of a trend. The chart below shows one way to use MACD in the context of the CRB's last bull market.

CRB Index 1998-2007

The chart below allows us to compare and contrast the last bull market (above) with the present day gains in commodities.

CRB Index 2006-2010

While we need to keep an eye on the U.S. dollar, there are currently no major concerns relative to the longer-term investment trends in commodities. Pull backs, and even violent corrections, are to be expected during any bull market. As long as technical and fundamentals factors continue to be supportive of higher commodity prices, we should err on the side of maintaining exposure to this asset class.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment