The graph below is an interesting depiction of the S&P Index's annual returns since 1825. Of the 186 years 70% were positive and 30% negative. The Index's total return for 2010 was +15.06%. Although interesting, the chart offers little guidance as to where the 2011 block will be placed.

Sources: William N. Goetzmann, Roger G. Ibbotson and Liang Peng, A new historical database for the NYSE 1815 to 1925: Performance and predictability, Journal of Financial Markets, Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2001, Pages 1-32; Value Square Asset Management; and Plexus Asset Management.

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