Update & Recommendations:
In my previous Update, the last day of 2010, I suggested that the - September to date rally is exhausted, and you should either be in cash or on your way to cash. That is definitely the case today.
I continue to believe that is a fact. There are many confirming factors that tangible support this recommendation.
Gold has broken down but I have not pulled the plug because both Silver and Copper are holding on, for the time being.
If you look at your mutual fund portfolio performance over the past month or so, on balance they have also started to break down. That is because the "breadth" of the NYA is substantially off its tops (double tops of Mid October and Mid November). The COMPQ is now - triple topping from a highs coincident with the dates mentioned for the NYA.
What I call the "topping action" has continued now for over six weeks and may continue to frustrate both me and most all investors.
It is frustrating to me because, the imminent General Market Bearish Inflection Point I have been forecasting just won't materialize. I hope you have been following some of my other postings and understand that this will be a "second" Bearish Inflection Point, and that is a very rare event.
It is frustrating to most investors because they are not making money on the long side, and if you have positions on the bearish side - they are doing even more poorly. Mine too!
So, the market is continuing to set up for yet a second (actually third) attempt at a Pullback. My best forecast is: Over the next couple weeks or perhaps some what beyond, a Bearish Inflection Point (a second one) and my important "Conformations" should materialize. (Repeating) this situation (two Bearish Inflection Points in a row) normally does not occur all that often. That means the coincidence of yet another Bearish Inflection Point at what the technicians will call a "double / triple - top" will occur.
That too suggests that holding long positions in both securities and mutual funds is not all that wise.
I hope you are following my - Personal / Private Blog. It is boring but accurate!
Something to Ponder:
I have not prepared anything to share. The last week or so, in SafeHaven.com - I posted most every day. All of those missives were some of my better thoughts for the year. You might want to consider looking at them again.
I will offer you this rather brief thought to ponder:
It is very important that you do not assume that a General Market Bearish Inflection Point means that everything is heading south. This past sentence, is why I continue to publish.
Selectivity is no longer just the General Market. It is the Sectors and even then you must look at the Sectors - Industry Groups. Carrying this one step further, you must look at the individual Companies and ETFs within the Industry Groups to make prudent investments.
In my day, this was not so. You could invest with confidence that your decisions were going to be profitable. This is definitely not so today. I hope you will always remember my "bell curve." Invest in Companies that are only at the beginning for long positions and at the end for short positions. I follow this advice and you should too - it Works every time!
You must be very "selective" in your choices of securities. Stock market analytics is not just a science - it has become also an art form. I'm loving returning from retirement and finding the above words be a fact. I'll admit it was easy in the old days, and I enjoyed much success. The daily challenge of using some very old tools and some rather new tools to make investment decisions is - fun for this old fox.
The good news is that my "stuff" is still profitable for over three years now and getting better.
Have a wonderful, profitable and healthy new year.
If you would like to have further information:
Just send me an Email, and I will respond promptly.
Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff" and continued interest in my work / analytics.
Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",