• 657 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 658 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 659 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,059 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,064 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,066 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,069 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,069 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,070 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,072 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,072 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,076 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,076 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,077 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,079 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,080 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,083 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,084 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,084 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,086 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Update of 10-Year US Treasury Index

The daily chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper and lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. I illustrated the short-term Elliott Wave count, which clearly indicates a change of trend. This is a real trend definer, because gold does well with rising interest rates (not year over year inflation). Wave 1 lasted ~3 months and went up 1.2%. Wave 2 should last until early May correcting down to the 3.2-3.3 region. Wave 3 should be at least 1.618 fold higher in price, so 1.618 x 1.2 is equal to 1.94 (essentially 2). Tack this onto 3.2 and the TNX rates are at 5.2%. Wave 3 is likely to take 5-6 months to complete this...or late 2011/early 2012. Wave 4 should take an equivalent amount of time or till May to June. If wave 4 corrects back to 4.5%, then a 1.2% move up to have equivalency to wave 1 is 5.7% in late 2012. Wave 2 should retrace 50-61.8% of wave 1, which would see a decline back to around 3.9%. This decline will correspond to wave 2 lasting all of 2013 and into 2014 which will see declining assets prices across the board. Subsequently, waves 3, 4 and 5 to follow would put interest rates around 8-10%...at a minimum.

Figure 1

The weekly chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands above the index, suggestive that a mid-term top was put in place. Lower 34 and 55 MA Bollinger bands aer well beneath the index, suggestive that the mid-term trend is still intact. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Although a 3 month correction in wave 2 should be expected, by no means anticipate the that rising interest rates are not locked in. The mid-term trend should be up for the next 12-18 months overall.

Figure 2

The monthly chart of the TNX| is shown below, with lower Bollinger bands still well beneath the index. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in 1 and above the %D in 2 and 3. The upward trend of the TNX should be on the order of 5-7 years.

Figure 3

The Elliott Wave count of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with wave 1 shown to have recently completed. Note that I may raise the Degree of wave 1 to (1) at a later point in time if required...the present Degree of labelling at present is sufficient to illustrate the trend. The recent low back in November saw the conclusion of a contracting triangle with reverse alternation to end the 30 year decline in interest rates. Now, things to preserve wealth will be in tangible items.

Figure 4

Since I am not talking about precious metals until later this week, I thought I would provide an update on some things...

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment