This article will be the first in a series examining the evidence for a projected top in the May-June 2011 time frame.
On February 6, 2011 (see the archives at www.TTheory.com), I wrote about the 14-week cycle tops. I warned "to be prepared for a change in investor sentiment coming in the next week or two." As we know, the S&P topped on February 18, 2011 at 1344, and has been consolidating/correcting ever since.
This week, let's revisit the chart of 14-week cycle tops:
As you can see, this cycle suggests the next top will come on or about May 24, 2011.
In future weeks, we'll examine projections based on Money Flow Ts™, Volume Oscillator Ts, and the ringing of a 114-week cycle. Until then, use caution in your investments and manage your risk wisely.