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Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

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Gold and Silver Survey Most Revealing

By Ian Campbell with Lorimer Wilson

The latest quarterly survey of subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com - a site providing stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 mining and energy related companies listed on the Toronto and Venture stock exchanges - as to their expectations for the price of gold and silver over the course of 2011, the extent to which they currently owned physical gold and physical silver, and what their intentions were with respect to holding, buying more, or selling part or all of their holdings, has generated some very interesting and revealing data. Let me explain our findings in detail.

Vast Majority of Respondents Bullish on Future Gold and Silver Price Trends

With respect to gold and silver price trends for the balance of 2011, 84% of the 181 respondents said they thought gold price would trend higher and 89% said they thought that silver would trend higher.

Majority of Respondents Were 60+

Surprisingly, as the chart below shows, 60% of the respondents were 60 years of age or older while only 9% were 45 or younger. Ten years ago it would not have been surprising to see those numbers reversed which says a great deal about these respondents' insights regarding the economic times we live in. Think about that in the context of the following questions asked as to whether respondents owned physical gold or physical silver, and what their current strategy was with respect to holding, buying more, or selling part or all of their holdings.

Majority of Respondents Own Physical Gold and/or Silver

55% of the 181 respondents said they currently own physical gold (directly or indirectly) with 40% saying they would be buying even more. 43% said they would continue to hold the gold they owned regardless of short-term fluctuations.

Regarding silver, 60% of the respondents said they owned it directly or indirectly with 57% saying they had plans to purchase more and only 32% indicating that they might sell their holdings in the future.

23% of respondents who said they didn't currently own gold said they were considering purchasing some while 17% were undecided. 34% of those who didn't currently own physical silver said they were considering purchasing some while 18% were undecided.

2% of respondents said their current strategy included selling all or part of their physical gold holding and 3% had plans to sell all or part of their silver holdings.

Interestingly, 48% of respondents said they thought the silver market is illegally manipulated, 18% said they didn't think it was, and 33% had no opinion. This is obviously a contentious issue, and one I will be 'going out a limb' and addressing in the near future.

[Editor's Note: As to just how high gold will go in 2011, a survey conducted earlier this year by Mineweb.com (over 100 respondents) concluded that gold should end 2011 at $1675 which would represent an 18% increase over the 2010 year-end price compared to 30% in 2009 and 24% in 2008.]

(In the next quarterly survey which will be undertaken at the end of June, the question as to what % of their investable assets respondents hold in physical gold and physical silver will also be included.)


Clearly the preponderance of opinion is on the side of an upward trend price in both gold and silver over the next nine months.


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