NEW YORK, NY (KWR) - March 29, 2011 -- As unrest, violence, and war spreads across the Middle East, observers are struggling to keep pace with events. Anti-government protests have toppled dictatorial regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, challenged the authority of Iran's mullahs, monarchies in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, and dictatorships in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Libya has descended into a bloody civil war drawing international military action in support of anti-government forces.

Equity markets have been adversely affected and oil prices have spiked to levels not seen since 2008. In trying to understand how long this instability might last and where it might lead, an interesting historical parallel exists. The events of early 2011 bear a strong resemblance to a similar transnational movement that shook authoritarian regimes one-hundred and fifty years ago during Europe's "spring time of the peoples" in 1848.

Between late February 1848 and early 1849 civic unrest exploded across Europe, commencing in France with protests for freedom of assembly. The movement forced the abdication of the French king and established a republic. Soon, protests for increased political rights and against absolute monarchies spread from France to the German states, Denmark, Austria, Hungary, and Poland.

Although separated by many years, the present movement shares many characteristics with these events of the nineteenth century. First, it is a trans-national phenomenon affecting similar but distinct countries. Second, it is a popular, grass-roots movement tapping deep social discontent. Third, it is based on a variety of local and international factors: domestic political repression, corruption, governmental ossification, and rough economic times. As in 1848, people are protesting for a political voice through representative government and a free press. They are spurred by difficult economic conditions, joblessness, and poor living conditions.

Where will their protests go? If history is a guide, the unrest in the Arab world will not disappear as suddenly as it appeared. Europe's "spring of the peoples" lasted more than a year and even with the swift spread of news through 24 hour media, Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube, change will take time. The old regimes will not simply melt away. The quick result in Tunisia seems to be the anomaly rather than the rule; Egypt's Mubarak is gone, but the army remains in control and a shift toward democracy and personal liberty is not guaranteed. Continued instability in Yemen and the escalated violence in Libya -- which has pulled in the international community -- demonstrate the fragile and long-term nature of resistance movements.

While the mass social movements of today have some immediate political effect, this does not mean their gains will be permanent or their new political structures will be stable. The protest movements will probably not change domestic social and economic structures in the short-term, but will have long-term effects for each country and the region as a whole.

Reform will be a long and difficult process and there are no guarantees the end result will be more open and pluralistic political systems in the Middle East and North Africa. France's monarchy fell in 1848, but the republic that replaced it soon gave way to a new monarch who created a new French empire intent on international expansion. The major concern from a western perspective is the emergence of Islamic states on the model of Iran or Afghanistan under the Taliban. The Islamic brotherhood is particularly strong in Egypt and Iran exerts a powerful influence over the Shi'ite majority of little Bahrain.

Not all autocrat regimes have been forced to confront full-scale social unrest. Jordan and Saudi Arabia (on opposite sides of the spectrum of political repression) have taken pro-active steps to reduce the anti-government attitudes of their populations. In spite of the signs of liberalization, citizens in both countries continue to confront a lack of political rights, difficult economic conditions, and massive social inequalities.

Despite its relative quiet, Saudi Arabia has several key features in common with the under-fire regimes. It is an authoritarian state founded on the hereditary rule of the Saud family. Styling themselves "kings," Ibn-Saud and his sons have ruled Saudi Arabia for almost one-hundred years. The Saudi royal family wields almost complete political and economic power in the nation of twenty-seven million. Saudi "princes" serve as the country's ministers, ambassadors, and governing and military elite. There are no elections, few representative bodies, no political parties, and limited freedom of assembly. Rights are even more limited for Saudi women who do not even have the right to drive a car.

With 10% unemployment, Saudi Arabia does not confront the massive joblessness of many of the other Muslim nations, but more than 30% of its youth are unemployed, creating a dangerous group of potential protesters. Add to this underemployment among the young, a literacy rate of around 80% and a high degree of urbanization (82%), and the ingredients are there for unrest.

At the same time, the Sunni country has a sizeable and persecuted Shi'ite minority. Problems in Bahrain, with a Shi'ite majority ruled by a Sunni monarchy, are only separated from the Saudi mainland by a causeway. What happens in Bahrain is closely monitored by the Saudis with an eye to contagion. In an attempt to bring the situation under control, Saudi troops have gone to the aid of Bahrain's government and used a heavy hand in confronting protests. These realities could come together to challenge the current structure of the Saudi state itself. Challenges, however, are not victories. The situation in Libya demonstrates how even the most eccentric and fossilized of yesterday's dictators can fight to maintain their power.

Oppressive regimes the world over may find it impossible to avoid challenges to their authority in the near term. And, whether the protests of the winter and spring of 2011 succeed or not, their motivation for change will not go away until the underlying cause of their grievances is addressed. The countries of the Islamic world have taken a huge step toward changing their political landscape, but it is a long and bumpy road. And those countries that have avoided public outcry this time around, both within and beyond the region, should take note, their turn will come.