• 557 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 559 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 959 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 964 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 966 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 969 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 969 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 970 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 972 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 972 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 976 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 976 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 977 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 979 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 980 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 983 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 984 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 984 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 986 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Dock Treece

Dock Treece

Dock David Treece is a partner with Treece Investment Advisory Corp (www.TreeceInvestments.com) and is licensed with FINRA through Treece Financial Services Corp. He provides expert…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Standard and Poorer

The big news this week came when the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on long-term US debt on fears that the United States' budget difficulties may lead the Treasury to default on some of its bonds.

This news, of course, sent shockwaves through financial markets, knocking major stock industries down several points upon release. The sentiment - and portfolios - of many investors around the world changed very quickly with this action by S&P.

S&P's decision to downgrade its outlook on long-term US debt comes on the heels of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's warnings that a failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling could result in a default on government debt.

In other words, Mr. Geithner is warning Congress that the United States' national debt has grown so large that the Treasury can no longer afford to service that debt without taking on additional debt. Sound idiotic? That's because it is.

First, Mr. Geithner, in his infinite wisdom, is pretending that he lacks any other mechanisms for servicing US debt. Monetization stands out as one viable option; and while the resulting inflation would be far from ideal, it beats the heck out of default, which would cripple this nation's credibility in international markets.

Then again, Congress could always cut back on spending and gradually reduce the national debt over time. Unfortunately, this makes entirely too much sense to be a desirably path for politicians in Washington. Plus, they'd surely lose votes if they started cutting funding and spending on various less-than-necessary programs.

Despite Geithner's repeated warnings, which are unlikely anything more than empty threats anyway, it would appear that the ratings agencies may be overreacting - which is certainly understandable. After all, S&P, et al can hardly afford to appear incompetent after they failed to correctly assess the risk in all those pesky mortgage-backed bonds and derivative securities that largely contributed to the market crash in 2008.

To borrow an interesting turn of phrase from Mr. Obama's predecessor that seems to characterize the dilemma facing ratings agencies, "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me... you can't get fooled again."

From an investment standpoint, the S&P downgrade on long-term US debt amounts to little more than noise in the market. The news, though big for headlines, did not fundamentally change the world. The threat of default by the US government has always existed; so one ratings agency's lack of confidence shouldn't mean much.

More importantly, investors certainly shouldn't be making investment decisions based on this event alone. Obviously this news represents another factor to be considered, but it shouldn't be leading investors to change their outlook on the fundamentals of this market or the economy.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment