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Temporary Dip, or Rebel Without a Pause?

Our subject, of course, is not the iconic 1955 American film about emotionally confused and disaffected suburban youth (although there are more investing parallels than one cares to admit). Instead, we are concerned with the recent rebellion by economies to standard post-war monetary prescriptions. Despite record stimulus and interest rates tethered to near-zero, recent growth figures are now showing renewed signs of slowing.

Are we reading the last rites over the economic expansion that began, as demarcated by the NBER, 24 months ago? A growing consensus believes that a second-half 2011 recovery awaits and the current correction is simply a pauserather than something more protracted.

In time, that may prove right ... but how much time? At this point, the evidence points to a further slowdown ... or a much elongated period of slow, slow growth (what we have call the SSL in the past) and an attendantadjustment in risk assets.

To read more: please click below for this month's ETFocus writtenby Tyler Mordy.

ETFocus- June 2011 - Temporary Dip, or Rebel without a Pause?

 

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