• 13 hours Is $90 Oil Possible? An Interview With Jay Park
  • 1 day Billions Of Dollars Are Flooding Into The Flying Taxi Space
  • 2 days Is This The Most Important Energy Project Of 2020?
  • 2 days Startups Are Dying To Give You A Better Death
  • 3 days U.S. Restaurants Are Struggling With Rising Labor Costs
  • 3 days The Banking Bonanza Is Just Getting Started
  • 4 days How The Trade War Ceasefire Will Impact The Energy Industry
  • 4 days Who Is The Most Dangerous Person On The Internet?
  • 5 days SoftBank Sees First Quarterly Loss In 14 Years
  • 7 days Prepare For An Oil Glut In 2020
  • 7 days Why A Strong Yuan Is A Promising Sign For The Trade War
  • 8 days What Would You Sacrifice For A Debt-Free Life?
  • 8 days Shareholders Urge Major Bank To Stop Funding Fossil Fuel Companies
  • 9 days Tariffs Are Causing A Slowdown In U.S. Manufacturing
  • 9 days The Great Silicon Valley Migration Has Begun
  • 10 days 3 Oil Stocks Paying Out Promising Dividends In 2020
  • 10 days How Fractional Trading Is Democratizing the Stock Markets
  • 10 days Why Smart Money Is Looking To Short Aramco
  • 11 days Gold Major Looks To Hike Dividends By 79%
  • 11 days Three Reasons Precious Metals Are On The Rise
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report

The good news is:
 • After Monday and Tuesday we enter one of the seasonally strongestperiods of the year.
 • The up move of the past three weeks was very broad suggestingmore to come.
 • The recent highs were confirmed by nearly every short andintermediate term indicator suggesting more to come.

The sell off that began last week was overdue and like the sell off in late September does not have much time. The chart below shows the NASDAQ composite in red and an indicator constructed by subtracting momentum of NASDAQ new lows from momentum of new highs in dark purple. Vertical dashed lines are drawn at the first trading day of each month.

The indicator is short term and nearly binary in its representation of market strength moving sharply upward or downward at turning points.

The current period looks very much like last September when a little weakness developed after an extended upward move. In September there was not much time for the downward move to be completed because of seasonally strong period at the end of September. Next week beginning Wednesday we also enter a seasonally strong period so this down move has little time for completion.

Next week will be influenced by some very strong seasonal patterns, Thanksgiving week usually begins weak and ends strong. Next week is also the week after options expiration which also usually begins weak and ends strong.

Report for 3 days before Thanksgiving and 1 day after.
Day1 = the day after
The number following the % change represents the day of the week:
1=Monday, 5=Friday etc.
The number following the year is the year of the presidential cycle.

R2K = Russell 2000
Year Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1988-4 -0.65% 1 -0.06% 2 0.39% 3 -0.19% 5 -0.51%
1989-1 -0.58% 1 -0.40% 2 0.34% 3 0.43% 5 -0.21%
1990-2 0.38% 1 -0.47% 2 -0.08% 3 0.18% 5 0.00%
1991-3 -0.70% 1 -0.31% 2 -0.03% 3 0.48% 5 -0.56%
1992-4 -0.02% 1 0.51% 2 0.53% 3 0.27% 5 1.30%
1993-1 -1.65% 1 0.51% 2 0.69% 3 0.13% 5 -0.32%
1994-2 -0.72% 1 -1.84% 2 -0.68% 3 0.59% 5 -2.65%
1995-3 -0.53% 1 -0.36% 2 0.04% 3 0.34% 5 -0.52%
1996-4 0.68% 1 -0.26% 2 0.37% 3 0.41% 5 1.19%
1997-1 -1.66% 1 -0.22% 2 0.29% 3 0.41% 5 -1.17%
1998-2 0.98% 1 -0.39% 2 0.69% 3 0.69% 5 1.97%
1999-3 -0.11% 1 -1.37% 2 0.33% 3 0.66% 5 -0.49%
2000-4 -2.56% 1 -0.73% 2 -1.90% 3 3.05% 5 -2.15%
2001-1 1.42% 1 -0.83% 2 -0.35% 3 1.35% 5 1.59%
2002-2 1.21% 1 -1.61% 2 2.99% 3 -0.95% 5 1.65%
2003-3 2.58% 1 0.68% 2 0.39% 3 0.22% 5 3.87%
Averages -0.12% -0.45% 0.25% 0.51% 0.37%
Winners 38% 19% 69% 88% 44%
 
Presidential year 4
Year Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1988-4 -0.65% 1 -0.06% 2 0.39% 3 -0.19% 5 -0.51%
1992-4 -0.02% 1 0.51% 2 0.53% 3 0.27% 5 1.30%
1996-4 0.68% 1 -0.26% 2 0.37% 3 0.41% 5 1.19%
2000-4 -2.56% 1 -0.73% 2 -1.90% 3 3.05% 5 -2.15%
Averages -0.64% -0.13% -0.16% 0.88% -0.04%
Winners 25% 25% 75% 75% 50%
 
SPX = S&P500
Year Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1988-4 -0.09% 1 0.37% 2 0.67% 3 -0.66% 5 0.29%
1989-1 -0.66% 1 0.07% 2 0.68% 3 0.60% 5 0.69%
1990-2 0.70% 1 -1.26% 2 0.23% 3 -0.29% 5 -0.63%
1991-3 -0.21% 1 0.70% 2 -0.37% 3 -0.35% 5 -0.24%
1992-4 -0.36% 1 0.58% 2 0.37% 3 0.23% 5 0.82%
1993-1 -0.75% 1 0.41% 2 0.29% 3 0.15% 5 0.10%
1994-2 -0.69% 1 -1.79% 2 -0.04% 3 0.52% 5 -1.99%
1995-3 -0.54% 1 0.57% 2 -0.31% 3 0.26% 5 -0.01%
1996-4 1.11% 1 -0.14% 2 -0.13% 3 0.27% 5 1.11%
1997-1 -1.70% 1 0.44% 2 0.09% 3 0.40% 5 -0.79%
1998-2 2.12% 1 -0.44% 2 0.33% 3 0.46% 5 2.47%
1999-3 -0.07% 1 -1.15% 2 0.89% 3 -0.03% 5 -0.37%
2000-4 -1.84% 1 0.35% 2 -1.85% 3 1.47% 5 -1.87%
2001-1 1.09% 1 -0.73% 2 -0.49% 3 1.17% 5 1.04%
2002-2 0.25% 1 -2.10% 2 2.80% 3 -0.27% 5 0.68%
2003-3 1.62% 1 0.17% 2 0.43% 3 -0.02% 5 2.20%
Averages 0.00% -0.25% 0.22% 0.24% 0.44%
Winners 38% 56% 63% 63% 56%
 
Presidential year 4
Year Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1988-4 -0.09% 1 0.37% 2 0.67% 3 -0.66% 5 0.29%
1992-4 -0.36% 1 0.58% 2 0.37% 3 0.23% 5 0.82%
1996-4 1.11% 1 -0.14% 2 -0.13% 3 0.27% 5 1.11%
2000-4 -1.84% 1 0.35% 2 -1.85% 3 1.47% 5 -1.87%
Averages -0.29% 0.29% -0.23% 0.33% 0.09%
Winners 25% 75% 50% 75% 75%

Report for the week after witching Friday in Nov.
Witching is futures and options expiration the 3rd Friday of the month.
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns for the 5 trading days after Witching.

R2K
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1988-4 -0.65% -0.06% 0.39% -0.19% -0.04% -0.55%
1989-1 -0.58% -0.40% 0.34% 0.43% 0.18% -0.03%
1990-2 0.38% -0.47% -0.08% 0.18% -0.22% -0.22%
1991-3 -0.04% -2.26% 0.33% 0.34% -0.77% -2.39%
1992-4 -0.02% 0.51% 0.53% 0.27% 0.62% 1.91%
1993-1 -1.65% 0.51% 0.69% 0.13% 0.00% -0.32%
1994-2 -0.72% -1.84% -0.68% 0.59% 0.27% -2.37%
1995-3 -0.53% -0.36% 0.04% 0.34% 0.32% -0.20%
1996-4 -0.17% 0.29% 0.17% -0.10% 0.79% 0.98%
1997-1 -1.66% -0.22% 0.29% 0.41% 0.99% -0.18%
1998-2 0.98% -0.39% 0.69% 0.69% -1.08% 0.89%
1999-3 -0.11% -1.37% 0.33% 0.66% -0.43% -0.93%
2000-4 -2.56% -0.73% -1.90% 3.05% -0.04% -2.19%
2001-1 1.42% -0.83% -0.35% 1.35% 0.61% 2.20%
2002-2 -0.87% -0.79% 2.38% 2.34% 0.58% 3.65%
2003-3 2.58% 0.68% 0.39% 0.22% 1.48% 5.35%
Avg -0.26% -0.48% 0.22% 0.67% 0.20% 0.35%
Win% 25% 25% 75% 88% 56% 38%
 
Presidential Year 4
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1988-4 -0.65% -0.06% 0.39% -0.19% -0.04% -0.55%
1992-4 -0.02% 0.51% 0.53% 0.27% 0.62% 1.91%
1996-4 -0.17% 0.29% 0.17% -0.10% 0.79% 0.98%
2000-4 -2.56% -0.73% -1.90% 3.05% -0.04% -2.19%
Avg -0.85% 0.00% -0.20% 0.76% 0.33% 0.04%
Win% 00% 50% 75% 50% 50% 50%
 
SPX
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1988-4 -0.09% 0.37% 0.67% -0.66% 0.53% 0.82%
1989-1 -0.66% 0.07% 0.68% 0.60% 0.48% 1.17%
1990-2 0.70% -1.26% 0.23% -0.29% 0.45% -0.18%
1991-3 0.68% -1.51% -0.23% 0.40% -1.03% -1.69%
1992-4 -0.36% 0.58% 0.37% 0.23% 0.28% 1.10%
1993-1 -0.75% 0.41% 0.29% 0.15% -0.25% -0.15%
1994-2 -0.69% -1.79% -0.04% 0.52% 0.41% -1.58%
1995-3 -0.54% 0.57% -0.31% 0.26% 0.23% 0.21%
1996-4 -0.08% 0.70% 0.24% -0.16% 0.81% 1.50%
1997-1 -1.70% 0.44% 0.09% 0.40% 2.03% 1.24%
1998-2 2.12% -0.44% 0.33% 0.46% -2.41% 0.06%
1999-3 -0.07% -1.15% 0.89% -0.03% -0.62% -0.99%
2000-4 -1.84% 0.35% -1.85% 1.47% 0.54% -1.33%
2001-1 1.09% -0.73% -0.49% 1.17% 0.62% 1.65%
2002-2 -1.04% -0.40% 1.94% 2.15% -0.34% 2.30%
2003-3 1.62% 0.17% 0.43% -0.02% 1.13% 3.33%
Avg -0.10% -0.23% 0.20% 0.42% 0.18% 0.47%
Win% 31% 56% 69% 69% 69% 63%
 
Presidential year 4
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1988-4 -0.09% 0.37% 0.67% -0.66% 0.53% 0.82%
1992-4 -0.36% 0.58% 0.37% 0.23% 0.28% 1.10%
1996-4 -0.08% 0.70% 0.24% -0.16% 0.81% 1.50%
2000-4 -1.84% 0.35% -1.85% 1.47% 0.54% -1.33%
Avg -0.59% 0.50% -0.14% 0.22% 0.54% 0.52%
Win% 00% 100% 75% 50% 100% 75%

Next week should have a turning point in the middle, Monday and Tuesday weak while Wednesday and Friday should be strong. The 4th year of the presidential cycle has been a little weaker than the average of all years. I think the completion of the down move Monday and Tuesday is likely to do more damage than the up move that should begin on Wednesday will help.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday November 26 than they were on Friday November 19.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment