Update & Recommendations:
It has been two weeks since my last posting and all has gone pretty much as I forecast in that last missive. The Marketplace is very, very close to a Bearish Inflection Point and that is a stern warning.
Whether or not the next Bearish pull back will be large or small is impossible for me to forecast. I never use trend lines, support or resistance lines to try to determine how far up or down a given Cycle, Bullish or Bearish will be. If you were to check the accuracy of true seasoned professionals who are financial analysts or those people who simple blog, when they offer their numbers of the S&P (for example), example) you will find that they are seldom very accurate! If you perhaps like a particular financial analyst / asset manager, I can assure you that - if he or she is giving you less than 90% or better accurate forecasts and profitable securities recommendations - you will be, for sure, a very inconsistently profitable investor! These remarks are just the experience and opinions of an old fox who has been very profitable for many years.
Since coming out of retirement and publically advising investor to go to Cash in late 2007 and again in May / June of this year -- I continue to share what I believe to be the most accurate forecasting offered in the major financial blog community. I hope you have or will take the time to review my articles and commentaries and agree.
I try to make clear that I am seeking new Clients for my efforts. Please let me know if I can offer personal one-on one direction to you via my professional asset management / mentoring / consulting services. My work / analytics is for the serious investor only.
My primary General Market Bearish Inflection Point has been in place since my forecasting its arrival in May / June. Since then it has been a very "Choppy" marketplace and the rallies of August are about over. That means I am formally forecasting a resumption of the initial pull back that the Marketplace presents to all of us from time to time. This is something not to be ignored!
It has been clear to me for many years that investors tend to put their head in the sand, at times like this, rather than being just a bit - proactive. I do not understand the average investor and never will. They want but they don't do! The say they listen, but listening requires action - NOT settling back to consistently inaccurate opinions and following very bad investment advice from the bad guys of Wall Street and the financial media! My list of 'bad guys' includes all of Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the financial media, stockbrokers, and most financial analysts. There are definitely others!
My Clients understand and benefit from the inevitable Bullish and Bearish Cycling and Rotational environments that comes along in the marketplace. It is simple for them as well as for me. I do something quite different than both mutual funds and most all other financial analysts / investors. I use Cash as a SafeHaven / SafeHarbor. And for more proactive investors I use bearish securities such as Inverse ETFs and highly selective shorting of companies that are currently out of favor. The probability of a meaningful profit is well over 90%.
It is really quite simple, I follow the bullish and bearish cycles of a large universe of securities by listening to the Marketplace and seldom ever read or listen to ANYTHING else. For me there really isn't ANYTHING else! The incrediably diverse opinions that are available to you create a night-mare of mis-informationthat won't go away. I include myself in this list, but hopefully you are finding that my work / analytics is quite unique. You must decide who to follow and then work with them on a one-on-one basis. If they will not correspond with you on a personal basis find someone who is very experienced that will.
I boldly suggest you take these remarks to heart. The Breadth of this marketplace started deteriorating quite severely about the first part of this year. You were warned. And you have been hurt, on balance since that time. Have you learned and are you following my efforts closely enough to possible consider changing your thinking and perhaps allegiances to people who have not given you accurate and profitable advice -- for years??? I have listed the Bad Guys above.
There will soon be another pull back followed by another rally. That is how it works - HOWEVER it is the TREND that you must also be in touch with and the current trend is definitely not positive. In all likely-hood it will be negative (bearish) for some meaningful time to come. Yes there will be corrective rallies but those rallies only sauve the wounds from the previous pull back for a short time.
As to 'When' the big blow to the downside occurs - well that is still up in the air. It could be this next pull back or the following one. I sincerely wish I could tell you. Instead, I just use bearish positons in bearish time frames and bullish positions in bullish time frames. It is really just that easy.
Crude Oil, Energy / Gold and Silver are "Breaking Down" and that too is serious. Gold remains leader and likely will for some time to come. Navigating through this mine-field in the coming months and quarters will be as difficult as, I can remember. The manipulation on the part of Wall Street and the Mutual Funds is severe. The "Big Guns" and their non-existent ethics that were once upon a time 'acceptable' are gone for ever - that includes: Wall Street, the Media, most Mutual Funds and most Stock Brokers.
The good news is that my Methodology and desire to help is still available to those who will seek guidance from this very wise and experienced old fox.
Let me know if I can help.
Note: You will be notified, here in SafeHaven.com when the General Market confirms my anticipated Bearish Inflection Point - it will be something like: "Houston it's a "Go" - we are airborne ..." If you are a Prospective Client, you will receive specific recommendations - upon request. This "free advice" will soon be stopped and made available only to Clients and Prospective Clients.
To keep up with my personal / private blog - use this URL: (It would be nice if you would become a "twitter" follower) http://twitter.com/#!/investrotation/
This will be as far as I go with recommendations, warnings and alerts in the flow of on going publishing of my several blogs. If that is sufficient for you - that is great, and I am pleased to offer you this level of direction. If you are looking for more detail and learn more about how I do my work / analytics - you will have to contact me by Email.
Something to Ponder:
Nothing this week ...
Three articles supporting my "Three Pillars" of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read: (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation
I would appreciate you also reading my more complete Bio. - with strong / accurate opinions offered to be sure we are at least a little compatible in our investment philosophy. Use this URL for my Bio: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer
If you would like to have further information on my work / analytics or perhaps my professional asset management, mentoring or consulting - services ...
I would appreciate your sharing just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives,
Just send me an Email, and I will respond promptly. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff."
Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",
