• 519 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 520 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 521 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 921 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 926 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 928 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 931 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 931 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 932 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 934 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 934 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 938 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 938 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 939 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 941 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 942 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 945 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 946 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 946 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 948 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Dock Treece

Dock Treece

Dock David Treece is a partner with Treece Investment Advisory Corp (www.TreeceInvestments.com) and is licensed with FINRA through Treece Financial Services Corp. He provides expert…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Investors Refuse to Learn Old Lessons

It seems strange to say, but this year winter really can't come quick enough. The markets have just wrapped up their worst quarter since 2008 and the economy continues to deteriorate with no end in sight, as Fed Chairman Bernanke already hinted that the US is likely slipping back into recession.

A brief history lesson: During the average recession, US stocks typically fall about 40% from their highs before bottoming. To date, stocks have already shaved roughly 20% off their highs; if the US were to officially enter a recession and stocks went through a normal correction, the Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average) would fall to somewhere near 8,000.

Presently both the Dow and the S&P 500 are at levels first reached before this millennium, which means that anybody who has owned most stock indices hasn't made a dime since '99 (except possibly for dividends). That's not to say there hasn't been money to be made - quite a lot of it in fact. The important thing is not just to be in the right place, but at the right time.

Our mantra, our motto that we constantly remind clients is "it's not what you own; it's when you own it." This has been proven time and again over the past three years. Looking at where the markets stand today and how things are developing, we have no doubt that there are some very good buying opportunities on the way. The question is when.

We've written before and it bears repeating that today is shaping up to look almost identical to the late 1970s for a host of reasons. The economy is slowing, the political landscape is looking familiar (Jimmy Carter versus Barack Obama), with partisanship coming to a head.

People are fed up with stocks, many selling out of frustration and vowing never to buy stocks again. Unfortunately, a lot of investors did precisely the same thing in the late 70s, right before one of the biggest booms in stock market history. Fortunately, a capitulation like this is usually a sign that the good times are closer than most people think.

Also ironic is how the balance of international economic powers has shifted. In the late 70s, everyone thought Japan was going to own the world. Nowadays everyone thinks it will be their neighbor, China. In all likelihood, just as the shift of power from the US to Japan reversed in the early 1980s, the same will likely occur with the US and China in the near future.

So when it comes to the markets, we know there are some great buying opportunities coming, but it's never smart to try to catch a falling knife. And that's exactly what the markets are right now.

With the massive shifts going on, it's important for most investors to seek sound advice, but to make sure the advice they're paying for is the advice they want. In other words, that it aligns with their goals and objectives.

For example: If the goal is to make money, are you paying for that advice? Or is the goal to build a tailored portfolio?

Investors need to understand that these are two totally different aims. Not only that, but they are generally mutually exclusive. One must take precedence over the other.

So, a word to the wise: Investors who aren't willing to spend the time necessary to follow the markets, do the research, and objectively manage their own money need to seek the advice of someone who will. As importantly, they need to first seek to understand their own goals and objectives. Only then can they identify someone capable of providing the help they need to get through these tumultuous times.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment