Something to Ponder:
I have remarked in recent postings in this my personal / private blog that I have been doing a lot of what (we financial analysts) call "Back-Testing" in order to absolutely confirm that we are in a Bear Market - Pull Back Cycle of the General Stock Market. I should add that almost always the 12 - 15 Sectors of the General Market very closely track the General Market itself. They too are predomiently Bearish.
When a Bear Market rally of the magnitude of the current rally, starting October 4th takes place - I would like you to know that even with 50-plus years of performing the tasks of being a professional Financial Analyst and Asset Manager - questions and concerns also make me feel - some what wobbly. That means that when the General Market does not go "My Way" - I too become concerned and proceed to find out why.
Hence, the long hours of work / analytics over the past couple of weeks.
It should be noted that having to also fight the steady flow of Bullish "News" that clearly has been a major stimulus to this current rally, I believe I have continued to do my "Homework" very well.
The bottom line of the above four paragraphs is: The Bear Market is - Still Intact - and will resume to the downside in a matter of just a few days or slightly more than a few days.
A secondary purpose for posting the above remarks is that when I spend these grinding hours of work / analytics, I always seem to come up with something that is very exciting to me regarding my use-of and faith-in my 40 plus-year-old Methodology. This time it (the excitement) is a new-found tool for future research, so getting a reward has happened once again. Actually, it replaces about 5 old tools and is much more percise and accurate. I would also like you to know that: Receiving a reward when I have erred is quite unseemly to a personality like mine - but I am grateful.
For you, my excitement would be both "ho-hum" and "totally boring" - but facts are facts and what I have 'come up with' - I am sure - is going to be of great benefit to your bottom line in the weeks and months to come.
I will be sharing the specifics with my Clients and a more generic overview for you Followers in the coming few weeks. Clients will receive an increased flow of specific security's recommendations that will be of course based on my rather old Methodology but with the much more 'exciting' use of my new analytical tool. Followers will receive the generics of the same.
The first "generic" was posted in my Friday blog and suggested that "Utilities" are in for a reversal of the strength they have exhibited for most of this year. So the 'generic' flow of information to my Followers will be recommendations of Sectors and Industry Groups (not specific securities recommendations) for your Bearish consideration both in my personal / private blog and in SafeHaven.com.
As for the exciting new tool, obviously it is proprietary. It is a wonderful combination of using the Breadth Indicators that I have developed and used in more recent years with a rather complex scanning process that captures much more precisely the entry and exit points of my universe of about 1,500 securities. It would easily work very well with the thousands of other securities that are listed on the Exchanges and on the Nasdaq. It is amazing to me that I have not found this tool before because it is so very accurate in both bullish and bearish markets. But as I said above - I am grateful.
If you Followers would like to participate along with my Clients, I am willing to share with a small group of Investors, say 10 -12 'serious' investors how my new 'tool' can benefit you in the coming weeks and months.
Just let me know via my Email: email@example.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my excitement. I believe time will vindicate my having taken Bearish position a month or so early.
Just something to ponder . . . From an old fox!
Three articles supporting my "Three Pillars" of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read: (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)
# 1. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation
# 2. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation
# 3. http://www.safehaven.com/article/22158/inflection-points-a-short-explanation
I would appreciate you also reading my more complete Bio. - I offer very strong / accurate opinions to be sure we are at least a little compatible in our investment philosophy. Please use this URL for my Bio: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer
How to become a Client or Prospective Client:
If you would like to have further information on my work / analytics or perhaps my professional asset management, mentoring or consulting - services . . . I would appreciate your sharing just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives.
I will need you to provide information regarding your investment needs, goals and objectives as well as - how you think my work / analytics might be of help in your quest to enjoy being consistently profitable on an annual basis.
Please understand that I am seeking "serious investors" to become Clients. I am willing to work with you as a Prospective Client providing on going forecasts, warrnings, alerts, advice / direction on your existing portfolio and limited new recommendations. I wish I could do more!
Just send me an Email, and I will respond promptly.
Thank you so very much for your time in reading my "stuff." It is conservative, low risk exposure to the marketplace and very profitable.
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