• 385 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 390 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 392 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 395 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 395 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 396 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 398 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 398 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 402 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 402 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 403 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 405 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 406 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 409 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 410 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 410 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 412 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 413 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 416 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 417 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Europe is in for a Long Recession

Collectively, the 27 sovereign nations that make up the European Union (EU) most likely entered a recession this quarter. Chart 1 shows that EU industrial production contracted at an annualized rate of 15.5% in September vs. August, a near certain sign of a recession. Given that the EU represents the largest economy in the world, a recession there is no small beer for the rest of the world.

European Union: Industry excluding Construction

The Greek tragedy morphed into an Italian comedy. Now, it has become a French farce. The plot behind all of these theater forms is how an economy struggles when deprived of adequate bank credit. Chart 2 shows the recent behavior of monetary financial institution (MFI) credit in the eurozone and the UK economies, economies that account for the bulk of EU GDP. Although eurozone MFI credit is growing, its growth is much slower than it was prior to the global recession. UK MFI is contracting. With all the problems associated with European sovereign debt, EU banks will be cutting back on their already miserly lending in anticipation of sovereign-debt write-downs. Hence EU MFI credit growth will slow more or contract, prolonging the EU recession.

MFI Credit: Eurozone and UK

Of course, the European Central Bank (ECB) could step in to create some of the credit that EU MFIs otherwise would be creating under normal circumstances. But the ECB fears that quantitative easing would somehow sully its Bundesbankian reputation. How ironic that the ECB, a central bank ostensibly sympathetic to an Austrian approach to monetary policy, would not try to maintain a normal amount of credit creation when MFIs were unable to do so. Europeans, get ready to join your Japanese brethren for a lost decade. It did not have to happen for the Japanese and it does not have to happen for the Europeans. But given the intransigence of Japanese and European central bankers (with the exception of British central bankers), it will.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment