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Daily Equity Analysis

Friday's high CPCE and SPX Doji did not prevent the fourth daily loss in a row.

SPX is now oversold:

  • Momentum:
    • - Stochastic = 9.48
    • - RSI (5) = 22.73

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  • McClellan Oscillator = -72.62

McClellan Oscillator
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  • NYSE Trin = 2.35

  • EOD print below BB.

Price has reached the target range for a potential reversal = 0.5 retracement & extension (1x1) for the assumed wave (C) of (B).

I maintain the scenario, which calls for a Zig Zag that should allow one more large up leg with a target above the October's peak.

My line in the sand remains the gap at 1155.46 SPX and indications that the structure of the pullback remains corrective, which at the moment is the case.

Since yesterday's rebound off the lod looks more corrective then impulsive I am expecting another lower low where a bottom could be established today.

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In addition to the potential corrective wave structure we cannot forget that there is an historical "proven" bullish seasonality into Thanksgiving, hence time is running out.

Potential EWP:

The Ending Diagonal option has been killed.

Hence I am working with the following bullish set up:

  • Down thrust out of a Triangle wave (B): If this is the correct pattern yesterday's bounce cannot cross above 1209.43 and the missing wave (5) down cannot be longer then 38.60 points.

EW Count
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No need to say that today's price action is critical for the bullish set up.

Probably the major "ally" for a bullish resolution is the EWP of the EUR which calls for a potential Ending Diagonal wave (C)

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