Europe's financial woes are serious. We believe the financial crisis will hit the fan starting in 2012 which will eventually lead to a political union of several major European nations, perhaps even a broader political union of western nations including Great Britain, the United States and Canada. It may be what results from developing global economic chaos. This is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down underway from May 2nd, 2011, a dangerous Bear Market wave of long-term duration. Life will change by the time it finishes.
Germany's benchmark bond offering failed Wednesday, which is an alarming development for Europe and for contagion risk to the rest of the globe, as up until now Germany has been seen as the rock that fortifies and protects a complete European meltdown, with a quarter of the continent's GDP. Now we all know Germany has problems as well. Germany's Central Bank had to buy 39 percent of the 6 billion euros offering ($10.0 billion equivalency). In other words, Germany just printed $3.9 billion equivalency dollars out of thin air to pay its bills. Weimer Republic anyone? Not good.
So what is happening? We are entering Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, the mother of all Bear Markets. In the past, we have seen Bear markets affect the solvency of corporations and individuals. Now we see a new Bear Market affecting the solvency of sovereign nations and continents. This Bear market is on a Grand scale the likes of which we have not seen in centuries. Here is a chart showing the big picture and how past Bear markets fit in with the scale of this developing one:
Above is a Big Picture Historical Elliott Wave Labeling for the Dow Industrials. It now appears that Grand Supercycle wave {III} up completed May 2nd, 2011 with a Megaphone Top Jaws of Death pattern. This is a major Bearish topping pattern. We cannot be completely sure that this Cycle Degree wave V up finished its Megaphone pattern because if the fifth wave (E) up finished on May 2nd, 2011, it means it truncated or failed to rise to the upper boundary. This leaves open the possibility that wave (E) up may have one more strong rally left in it to reach the upper boundary. There are no hard and fast rules. If the top is in on May 2nd, 2011, then the mother of all declines, Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, has started, which will be so bad, it could be a coming Tribulation period of political and economic upheaval, war, pestilence, and natural disasters. Then a golden era, Grand Supercycle degree wave {V} up will follow. The Great Depression was of Supercycle degree, wave (IV) down, and was not of Grand Supercycle degree, like the coming Bear Market will be, which means this developing Bear Market, which is in its infancy, will be worse.
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"Jesus said to them, "I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day."
John 6: 35, 38, 40