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Firm Follow Through

11/29/2011 9:04:00 AM

The next step is important to consider...

A new advance has the following characteristic - prices tend to firm up and prices tend to advance late in the day. Think of market trade like a barbell, where the weights (volume) are at the ends, or the open and the close. The end of day is where the most important action takes place.

Here's a look at the global markets:

Global Markets

On the economic front, here is the schedule for this week. Pay close attention to the timing of the report and the potential for the markets to make short term reversals at those points.

Economic Calendar

On to the charts:

Daily Stock Barometer


Stock Barometer Analysis

We're in Buy Mode here, expecting the markets to bottom and run higher into Mid December. We've got the initial bounce; the next question is do we retest, or form a v-bottom.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.


Money Management & Stops

To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:

  • This system targets intermediate term moves, of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each other.
  • This system will usually result in losing trades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
  • Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some form of money management to protect your capital.
  • Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.

Accordingly;

  • Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're trading leveraged funds and options with our trading service).


Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2011 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/15, 1/29, 2/16, 3/10, 3/18, 4/6, 5/21, 5/31, 6/13, 6/24, 7/16, 8/1, 8/19, 9/4, 9/25, 10/21, 10/25, 11/25, 12/26. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.

It looks as though we have a 11/25 low confirmed - and I expect a move higher into 12/26.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13, 9/7, 10/2, 10/27, 11/21, 12/19. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance. 2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.


Timing Indicators

Use the following Timing/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.


QQQQ Timing Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

QQQQ Timing Indicator

The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.


Gold Timing Indicator (AMEX:GLD)

Gold Timing Indicator

Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.


US Dollar Index Timing Indicator (INDEX:DXY)

US Dollar Timing Indicator

Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.


Bonds Timing Indicator (AMEX:TLT)

Bond Timing Indicator

Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.


OIL Timing Indicator (AMEX:USO)

Oil Timing Indicator

Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.


Secondary Stock Market Timing Indicator

NASDAQ Cumulative Breadth

We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.

As an annual subscriber to any of our services, you will get access to all our charts and research. Email Carl@stockbarometer.com to upgrade and also save 20% on your subscription.


Daily Stock Market Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, seeing the markets bottom here and rally into Mid to late December.

Above chart shows nasdaq cumulative breadth. It's underlying message is bullish, potentially. Like a plane taking off - we're at the point of an initial rally where the most risk exists. Risk management is key (as Jeff Neal always promotes). So while I'd recommend buying pullbacks here if you're not already in, always do so with an eye towards caution...

Something else I observed:

QQQ Rel Strength versus SPY Spread

And if you remember back to our option call back in October, here's a chart of how that option performed in the next 9 days:

QQQ

I've made a similar option call here. As a heads up, our Stock Options Speculator service will return to regular pricing $39/month) in 2012. Click here to take advantage of the discounted pricing ($9.95/month) for the remainder of 2011 - and that will lock in the discounted pricing as long as you remain subscribed...

As the market moves towards the open, the hourly indicators are bearish, I expect that to resolve around the 10:20 market pivot. The key to today will be the price action into the close.

In addition, both oil and gold on the Friday of last week gave us some wild volatility numbers. Both resolved and returned to normal levels. It'll take a bit to understand the implications. I'll advise later.

If you want to learn more about some of these indicators, I use my blog to cover them in more detail.

If you're looking for more information, please visit our blog - I'll have updates and publish other articles there. http://investmentresearchgroup.com/Blog/

Regards,

 

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