The main idea I am involved with remains the same.
Its "fulcrum" is the structure of the pullback from the October's peak, which is strongly suggesting that the EW pattern off the October 4 low is not completed yet.
I have been proposing 2 potential EW candidates:
- An impulsive wave (C) up, in which case price is looking for the bottom of the wave (2).
This scenario is getting "weaker" not because of the retracement reached since a wave (2) can, without issuing technical problems, reach the 0.618 retr., rather the issue is that price now has both the 20d & 50d MA above and at the same time daily momentum has been damaged by the RSI below the 50 line & by the MACD bearish signal cross.
With this week selling pressure, though, we now have the McClellan Oscillator reaching the oversold 60 line.
- And the NYSE adv-dec volume shows at yesterday's eod positive divergence.
- And also the impulsive down leg from the peak reached on the Tuesday (SPX = 1249.86) can be counted as potential fiver. And if we have a fiver here, given that the initial wave structure of the pullback is corrective, it means that price is now tracing a wave (C).
A wave (C) could belong to a ZZ, therefore I am suggesting that at least a rebound should be expected very soon.
If price is able to recover above the 50 dsma then this option will be revitalize.
- A Triangle wave (B): If in the next rebound price fades below the 50 dsma then this scenario will become my primary count.
In the weekly chart below we can see that last week's Spinning Top has been accurate.
In the mean time price has reached an important support range = 1209 - 1204
In order to switch to a bullish weekly hammer price needs to recover the 1230 area by eod tomorrow.
Regarding NDX it is all about 2 gaps: above 2268.37; below 2211.39
While my idea remains the same:
The EUR is the one to blame. Here given the complex overlapping structure of the selloff I prefer to rely on my larger "map", which calls for a wave (a) within a large DZZ that began at April 2010 top. I am expecting that in the range 1.2966-1.2870 price should attempt a bottom.
Contrarian Indicator: Bund
If the count that I am working with is correct price should be on the verge of a reversal:
To sum up: Despite having established the line in the sand at 1215, honestly I have not given up the ZigZag option but price has to make a bullish statement today.
