• 526 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 526 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 528 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 928 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 932 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 934 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 937 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 938 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 939 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 940 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 941 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 945 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 945 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 946 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 948 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 948 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 952 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 952 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 953 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 955 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

We started 2012 by observing that we probably won't have to wait a long time to see whether the market will continue on a bullish or bearish path. The choice was made right on the first trading day of the year, and the SP500 has been trending up ever since. This establishes a new monthly trend channel with a more sustainable slope:

In addition, the trend indicator we introduced two weeks ago remains up in all three time frames - daily, weekly and monthly. So what can go wrong?

Well, for one the Q's are bumping up against long-term monthly resistance once again, and since they are the leading index, we need to keep a close eye on them for signs of break-out or failure:

The weekly OEX, NDX and DJIA indices, have been overbought long enough to flash a warning that a reversal may be imminent:

And lastly, January 20 is the date when both my bullish and bearish seasonal forecasts for the SP500 turn down.

In summary, absent a clear break-out above resistance from the Q's, now is not the time to be complacent.

 


On that cautionary note, I'm happy to announce the upcoming release of a new member of the OddsTrader family of apps - OddsTrader Trend. OT Trend will help users discover the hidden rhythm of the markets, and quantify the constant ebb and flow of seemingly random market action.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment