• 396 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 396 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 398 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 798 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 803 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 805 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 808 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 808 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 809 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 811 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 811 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 815 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 815 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 816 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 818 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 819 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 822 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 823 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 823 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 825 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Frank Hogelucht

Frank Hogelucht

Individual investor, trading for a living since 2007, taking a statistical approach in combination with historical market data and addicted to developing market-neutral algorithmic trading…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Multi-Month High on FOMC Session

Compliant to historical probabilities and odds, major market indices advanced (again) in response to the FED's decision to leave rates unchanged for theforeseeable future.

S&P 500 and the SPY's (S&P 500 SPDR) closed at a 5-month high (and missed a 6-month high by a single day only; the last time the SPY closed this high was on July 26, 2011), while the Nasdaq 100 index closed at its highest level since February 6, 2001.

Historically, when the SPY had closed at a multi-month high on an FOMC announcement session in the past, this had regularly not been a top, leave alone the top.

Table I below shows the SPY's (S&P 500 SPDR) performance (cumulative returns) over the course of the then following week in the event the SPY had closed at an at least 5-month high on an FOMC announcement session in the past.

The SPY posted at least one higher close over the course of the then following week on all 24 previous occurrences, closed at an even higher level one week later on 4 out of every 5 occurrences (or almost 80% of the time), and 1.0%+ moves on the upside outnumbered -1.0%+ moves on the downside by a very wide margin (only one -1.0%+ loss 1, 3 and 4 days later).

SPY at 5-month high on FOMC announcement session
Table I - SPY at 5-month high on FOMC announcement session


Conclusion(s)

For the time being, the trend most probably remains up ...

Have a profitable week,

 


Disclosure: No position in the securities mentioned in this post at time of writing.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment