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USD/CAD: Temporary Bounce

By - Feb 21, 2012, 5:26 AM CST

USD/CAD is finding some support around the 0.9926 swing low posted on 9th February after the breakdown from 1.0052 which completed a bull trap.

Short-term risk is seen to the downside and while 0.9983/1.0052 caps the risk is seen for sustained loss of 0.9928, a move which should then see an extension of the recent downtrend towards reaction lows at 0.9892 then 0.9766 as the bear run resumes following bearish resolution to a triangle.

We would need to see re-capture of 1.0052 from here to suggest basing potential, with scope then for a push towards minor resistance at 1.0163 then 1.0250 in a more bullish multi-week scenario.

EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, is working higher having based ahead of psychological 1.3000. The rate remains within a trading range, with upside resolution to target broken support at 1.3394.

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