Breach of the lower end of the 1.2063/1.2129 trading band looks to have signalled completion of the recovery from the 1.2032 swing low posted on 1st February.

The bearish resolution to a 1.2131/1.2474 trading range in January effectively turned the major trend down and while 1.2100/1.2129 caps the likelihood is seen for a test of the 1.2032 swing low then key 1.2000 before a base can be attempted.

Sustained loss of 1.2000/1.2032 could see an acceleration of the major downtrend towards 1.1500 initially, while re-capture of 1.2100/1.2129 then broken support at 1.2226 would suggest that a solid base has formed, turning the focus to the 1.2474 swing high.

Daily Technical Report