EUR/USD is still maintaining its short-term downtrend from late February, while capped beneath last Friday’s high.
The bears need to close decisively below 1.3000 (psychological support), in order to open further downside risk into 1.2630 (16 Jan swing low).
Only a confirmation back above 1.3291 (09th March high) and 1.3436/60 unlocks an extended recovery into our upside target zones at 1.3630 and 1.3638 (200-day average).
Inversely, the USD Index is continuing to hold its short-term uptrend which had been launched from key support at 78.25.
Expect this level to act as one of the last points of defence for a relaunch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of our bullish cycle strategy for a further 20% gain over the multi-month period.