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Wag the Dog

Romney and Obama

Although they rarely replicate along completely congruent parameters, long term analogs - when properly applied, can be excellent roadmaps for interpreting pivots. Here is the last secular turn the USD made compared to today.

Quiet an interesting timeframe, considering the elections this fall. From my perspective, the USD's fate is already sealed - but the pundits will certainly wag the dog and write a politically driven headline for its approaching breakout.

It's either going to be:

"Romney Wins - the Dollar Approves!"
or
"Obama Delivers - Dollar Holler!"

US Dollar Weekly 2009-2012

US Dollar Weekly 1993-1997

Of course considering the inverse relationship of a strengthening U.S currency with the equity markets, we also may see:

"Romney Wins - the Stock Market Dives!"
or
"Obama Delivers - a Knockout to the Market!"

 

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