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The State of the Trend

This week we'll focus on the SPX daily chart which clearly shows that the index has painted itself into a corner. The inevitable break in either direction on Monday will likely set the tone for the rest of the week:

The fibonacci retracement levels from the October and November '11 lows almost perfectly coincide with chart support levels at 1360, 1340, 1320 and 1290, while resistance remains at previous highs at 1392 and 1422.

A closer look into market internals reveals that they have improved considerably since the April 10th low and, actually, find themselves in overbought territory. This limits the risk of an upside breakout or sustained rally for the coming week.

The weekly SPX remains below the pivot line at 1396 which suggests that the correction isn't over yet:

SPX

 

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