I first wrote about Gold priced in AUD$ back in Jan 2012.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/23948/market-update-gold-in-aud
I remember watching the 3 wave decline in Gold in US$ and Gold in AUD$ at the same time which gave me the confidence to suspect there was ample evidence that a low was in place back in Dec 2011.
A lot has gone on since then. We have seen a $250 whipsaw in Gold in US$, but looking at some other clues to see if I could find an edge to Gold in US$, I came across a potential idea that could be a clue for Gold priced in US$ as well.
When I see this chart, it doesn't bode well for this market, although it's not a 100% correlation with Gold in US$, it don't exactly inspire me to be bullish on this market, at least not when I see the potential for a reversal as shown.
You can clearly see a 3 wave decline from the Aug 2011 peak, into the lows in Dec 2011, and what I suspect now is a 3 wave bounce. If so the bear's are potentially setting up a strong move lower and really slam this market lower towards $1500 over the coming weeks/months.
You could genuinely make a valid case if we saw more weakness in Gold in AUD$, then Gold in US$ is going to follow. I would tend to agree, hence my caution here on being bullish on Gold in either currency, until we can really confirm the direction in both currencies. So this is a decent idea over the coming days to be watching, it probably needs a bit higher towards $1700-1720 before the expected reversal. A strong break under $1640 is weak sign for this market.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.
