As I am sure you do, I continuously monitor what I read that is written by others, and periodically check back on any forecasts they have made to see how those forecasts compare with what actually has happened. Based on those reviews, I decide which mainstream news writers and Internet commentators I am going to continue to follow.

Having said that, it only seems fair to re-visit the predictions I published on January 3, 2012 for the 2012 calendar year, and see how mid-way through the year they measure up. I have abbreviated my January 2012 predictions in this commentary. For the full text read my archived January 3 e-mail at Stock Research Portal.

Europe and the Eurozone:

• UK unemployment will increase, and the UK economy will weaken over the course of the year;

• Eurozone politicians will continue to procrastinate, and defer for as long as they can Eurozone sovereign debt issues;

• Eurozone sovereign debt issues will remain at the forefront of economic concern throughout 2012, and those issues may seriously exacerbate through the year; and,

• the credit ratings of European banks will drop further than they already have, and one or more European banks may fail. If that occurs there will be a waterfall effect on some large U.S. banks.

The United States

• Eurozone problems, if unresolved, could have a large impact on the United States economy;

• Washington politicians will remain polarized throughout this Presidential election year. President Obama will be re-elected for a second term;

• quantitative easing on fairly large scale is virtually certain to occur in 2012;

• there will be increased capital spending in the private sector on technological equipment that requires less labour input;

• U.S. unemployment rates will not improve through 2012, but will worsen as 2012 unfolds;

• U.S. structural unemployment in the U.S. will increase;

• there will be more social demonstrations, and perhaps increasing levels of social disorder than was experienced in 2011;

• U.S. house prices will not improve significantly through 2012, and in fact may continue to drop;

• the number of houses in foreclosure will increase;

• the U.S. revert to technical recession sometime during 2012, defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP;

• the U.S. will continue to run net monthly trade deficits;

• there will be significant budget deficits at all U.S. (federal, state, and municipal) government levels;

• the U.S. Cumulative National Debt will to continue to increase;

• an exacerbation of U.S. state and municipal debt problems in 2012 will not be a surprise;

• some of the large U.S. banks will suffer from exposure to Eurozone sovereign debt, and possibly in 2012 from derivatives exposure;

• 2012 might be the year the 2008-2009 change in accounting mark-to-market rules catch up with what I think likely are inflated bank 'book shareholders' equity' balances; and,

• the U.S. dollar will continue through 2012 to be viewed as the world's safe haven fiat currency.

China

• there may be reduced GDP growth in China in 2012;

• any reduction in China's GDP growth might have a multiplier effect in the developed countries that supply China with resources and other non-agricultural products;

• notwithstanding, China's 2012 GDP growth will be sufficient to continue to advance China's economic growth, and China's role in world economic matters;

• China will succeed in making strategic resource investments around the world - 'cherry-picking' the best of those;

• China will maintain or increase its current level of physical gold purchases, and throughout 2012 will work to reduce its U.S. dollar exposure;

• China will not alter its currency exchange rates unless it is in China's interest to do that; and,

• the change in China's Central Government players expected in 2012 is something to follow and observe closely.

Middle East and parts of Africa

• Middle East oil production will not increase significantly in 2012;

• world oil prices will remain at or above current levels unless there is a worldwide recession or depression;

• there will be more societal disruption in the Middle East (and in North African and other African countries) in 2012; and,

• it is highly likely Iran will continue its aggressive posturing, and that the United States will continue to respond in kind. Whether it happens in 2012 or beyond, there is a real possibility of this leading to major military confrontation.

Canada

With respect to Canada:

• Canada's majority Conservative Government will work hard to keep Canada's federal deficits under control;

• Canada's Provincial and Territorial governments, particularly that of Ontario, may not so strongly keep their deficits under control;

• Canada's unemployment rate may increase in 2012, as the United States may become increasingly 'trade protectionist'; and,

• house prices in major Canadian cities (notably Toronto and Vancouver) ought not to continue to increase in price, and there is a real chance that 2012 will be the year that Canadian house prices max out - and perhaps begin to drop in price.

Financial Markets

• there are factors in play (at and prior to January 3, 2012) causing the equity markets to behave far more bullishly than world economic factors lead me to believe they ought to;

• I have thought this (at January 3, 2012) for some time and have for that time been proven wrong. That said, I still believe that in the end I will not be proven wrong;

• the 2008 financial crisis drove the equity markets down very quickly and very materially. I believe that at some point in 2012, we will face a financial crisis at least as severe as was experienced in 2008 - and that such a further financial crisis will prove to be worse than that experienced in 2008.

Physical Gold

• if the U.S.$ is strong in 2012 that will influence the price of physical gold downward from what it otherwise would be;

• notwithstanding a strong U.S.$ based on relative fiat currency comparisons, the price of physical gold ought to trend upward through 2012, with intermittent volatility; and,

• unwelcome major tumultuous events such as a Sovereign Debt default by a Eurozone country (or countries), major military confrontation, or extensive societal disorder across many countries, all could act as very positive influences on the physical gold price.

Mid-year comments on January 2012 forecasts:

With the following exceptions, the forecasts I made in January have either so far proven to be generally correct, or are trending toward being correct by year-end. The exceptions are:

• the most recent UK unemployment rate at 8.2% is down slightly from January 8.45 levels. That said, concerns are now being expressed that UK unemployment will increase from here by year-end;
• I am not as certain now as I was in early January that U.S. President Obama will be re-elected on November 6. That said, I still believe he will be. However, a fickle American Main Street might punish him if U.S. near-term monthly job reports continue to disappoint as did those reports in May and June;
• to date in 2012 there has not been an increase in social demonstrations in the U.S. This is not to say that can't change by year-end, as the U.S. economy currently seems to now be in a 'stall to decline' mode;
• latest reports suggest U.S. residential housing foreclosures are slightly improved from the beginning of this year; and,
• nothing has changed in an unexpected way that causes me to adjust any of my January forecasts in early July for the balance of 2012.

I again said on January 3, 2012 (having said this same thing one year earlier)

• "the only thing that is certain is that we live in uncertain times"; and,
• that if we lived in uncertain times at the end of 2010, we lived in even more uncertain times at the end of 2011.

While I would like my view to be otherwise, I now believe on July 10, 2012 that we live in even less certain economic times than we did six months ago.