Today is courtesy day for our free subscribers. That means we will share one of the three dozen charts that we post on our paid subscriber sites every day.
Good investors have to be a Sherlock Holmes these days, and they need to watch and understand a large array of data and their behaviors. When you realize that you are competing with some very smart Wall Street firms with their million dollar computers, you begin to realize that tracking what they do will tell you where the market is going.
So, everyday, we start an in depth data analysis at 5 AM that involves pouring over extensive data reports. There are some definite behavior relationships between data types, and with their connection with the stock market's action. Couple this to technical analysis and the result gives you a good picture and understanding of what is really going on in the market.
For instance, the NYSE's Down Volume (symbol: DVOL) often has clues that explains the VIX or when the market is at an important juncture.
Allow me show you an example of what we mean. Below is a chart of the DVOL versus the SPY for May through yesterday. In this chart, I would like you to focus on the red labels that are tagged 1 through 4. We are at 4 now. What is important is what happened at labels 1, 2, and 3. Notice that they perfectly defined a resistance line, and every time the resistance line was hit, the DVOL went down and the market went up. The relationship is common sense ... if the Down Volume decreases and trends down, then the downside pressure on the market also decreases.
The whole point of this is to alert you that today is a resistance test for this behavioral pattern. If the DVOL bounces off of its resistance line like before, then the market bias will be positive and to the upside. If however, the DVOL breaks through the resistance line, then the market's weak side will gain power.
(NOTE: Today's chart is updated daily and can be found on the Standard subscriber site; Section 4, Charts 9a. This is a courtesy chart today and will NOT be shown again on this Free Member site until August the earliest.)