In the video below Jefferies Managing Director Peter Misek discusses the coming iPhone 5 with Emily Chang on Bloomberg TV.
Misek reports the iPhone will be significantly thinner and taller because of new technology he did not expect to be available for at least another year.
What really caught my eye, however, was a segment in the middle of the video regarding grim statistics on sales and employment in China starting at about the 2:26 mark.
Link if video does not play: Details on iPhone 5 Emerge
Emily Chang: Another thing you say is smart-phone and PC demand in China is dropping off significantly. What exactly is going on there?
Peter Misek: We came back from China really depressed, I have to say. It appears that mainland China is correcting significantly. The statistics the government publishes, frankly we think are largely fabricated. So you have to rely on other statistics such as retail sales, electricity usage, mall traffic, etc. And what we saw, and whet we heard was pretty grim. We think consumer electronic sales could be falling double-digits year-over-year in June and thus far in July. And we think the catalyst frankly is job losses. The premier of China was on this morning basically saying the labor situation is severe, meaning job losses are accelerating and unemployment is skyrocketing. That is causing the Chinese consumer who naturally saves more than we do, to save even more.
Plunging New Orders Everywhere
The rise in Chinese unemployment ties in perfectly with my July 6 report Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived.
The grim data also fits in with the email yesterday from Michael Pettis yesterday: "China Rebalancing Has Begun"; What are the Global Implications?