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Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

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Employment: A Circular Problem - Capital Spending Decision-Making and Unemployment

Why read: Because this problem is real, and is 'real important'.

Commentary: A friend of mine has a business that manufactures and supplies specialized industrial equipment where:

  • his customer base is largely comprised of American and Canadian Fortune 500 multi-plant companies controlled by head offices that operate in the chemicals, food, mining, and plastics sectors;

  • the price of each of the principal units he sells averages about Cdn$75,000;

  • there is both a large amount of knowhow and a proprietary component to the equipment sold;

  • individual orders (comprising multiple units and related 'systems') can range up to Cdn$500,000 and higher;

  • when in place and operating, the units and accompanying software typically have a payback of less than 18 months and usually a much shorter payback time than that; and,

  • a portion of that payback relates to labour savings, as installation typically results in the purchaser plant requiring at least one less worker per unit installed.

My friend recently told me that he is increasingly running into the following problem:

  • his typical project is analyzed for return on investment at the plant level, but must then be approved at head office;

  • he is finding that even where production efficiencies and plant saving are obvious, he is having difficulty - particularly with persons employed in plants in the United States - getting them to forward their 'approved analysis' to their head offices for final approval; and,

  • he has been told in some instances 'in so many words' by plant personnel that they are 'concerned for their jobs' in the current economic environment.

To the extent this is a fair summary of what I was told, clearly there is 'negative economic circularity' at work (no pun intended) here.

There is no good solution to this that I can think of in the current economic environment, where 'a job in the hand may be worth as much as five jobs in the bush'. Essentially, while such behavior on the part of plant personnel is understandable - who wants to go 'out on a limb' to have it break off and 'fall' - it is counterproductive to, and inconsistent with, economic stability and perhaps recovery.

 

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