• 407 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 408 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 409 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 809 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 814 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 816 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 819 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 819 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 820 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 822 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 822 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 826 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 826 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 827 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 829 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 830 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 833 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 834 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 834 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 836 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold Stocks Got You Down? This History Lesson Will Pick You Up...

If you own any, it might seem that gold stocks have been underwater for a long time, and that the bull market is over.

Yet, the chart below tells me that likely as not, those with the courage to buy when others panic will be the big winners in gold.

It shows that those who bought gold stocks in '74-'75 when everyone else was buying eventually made money.... but those who bought when others were selling in '76 went on to make a killing.

So recently, while veteran gold investors are little concerned and see the markdowns as a buying opportunity, it's raised the ire of more than a few newer investors.

The extent and duration of the selloff in gold equities has spurred much speculation about the health of the trend, summed up neatly as , "Does it mean the bull market is over?"

Hardly. And for one fundamental reason that we at Casey Research - especially Jeff Clark in BIG GOLD - have stated more than once:

The drivers for gold are far from over, which will eventually propel stock prices higher.

History shows that lagging equities during a gold bull market are par for the course.

The chart below, comparing the current gold equities downturn with the one experienced during the middle of the last great gold bull market of the '70s, shows a similarity;

Barron's Gold Mining Index vs HUI Chart

From April 1973 through July 1976, gold stocks as a group initially tripled in value - and then gave it all back.

You can see that the latest retracement is very similar in nature, though the initial climb was smaller and the downfall shorter.

It goes without saying that sentiment for gold stocks during the two-year selloff that commenced in 1974 was abysmal. Worry grew as stocks got cheaper and cheaper - and then cheaper still.

Even though the gold price was also falling, cries that the bull market in gold stocks was over grew. It seemed there was no money to be made in gold stocks.

Sound familiar?

Ultimately, the selloff did not end the trend. Gold resumed its climb in early 1976, and gold stocks mimicked the ascent.

Then, in 1979, the mania started for both precious metals and the equities, culminating in the blow-off top of January 1980.

In retrospect, that 40-month retracement was one big fake-out.

My personal takeaway from this chart: those with the mettle to buy when others take flight will be the big winners this time, too.

As in any investment, knowledge is key. Sure, the buyers in '74-'75 made money eventually. But those who bought when others were selling in '76 did far better.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment