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Absolutely I cannot change my short-term scenario. The Internal corrective price structure of the pullback off the August 21 high is strongly suggesting that price has more business in mind to the upside. This missing up leg is expected to get over with the Triple Zig Zag off the June 4 low.
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The target range for the move higher may be anywhere between 1426 - 1445. Hopefully we can have a better idea of the target once we have the kick off of the break out up leg.
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Hopelessly bad is my effort to find the correct EWP of the current pullback, but the pattern which price is forming from the August high strongly suggests that this move will not result in a trend reversal. But I am running out of "ideas" so I give up showing wrong set ups.
I am clueless if the last assumed wave up will be launched from 1398, which is the persistent support or from 1390-1385.
I have mentioned that the SPX Bollinger Band set up is calling for an "imminent" resolution of this tedious sideways move.
Yesterday price rebounded off the lower BB leaving a potential bottoming candlestick (Doji), in addition the 10 d has reached the 20 d MA which should not issue a bearish cross under the scenario of a bullish resolution.
I will maintain a short-term bullish bias as long as price does not breach the trend line support in force since the June lows, which today stands at 1381.
Despite the unclear short term EWP the McClellan Oscillator has issued a buy signal suggesting that price could attempt a break out to the upside.
The VIX potential BB buy equity set up did not play out, but I still believe that the odds of at least a pullback are larger than an extension higher.
At least a short-term top would be confirmed by closing yesterday's gap up at 17.43
We cannot rule out that the VIX could establish a higher low if the 20 d MA holds.
The size of the expected "retreat" will give us clues regarding the potential upside move of SPX.
We are approaching two major event risks:
Tomorrow: ECB meeting
On Friday: NFP
