EUR/USD has moved below its short-term support at 1.3022. A move towards the support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012) is now expected.
The lack of base formation or sell-off suggests that the current strength in EUR is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.