EUR/USD failed to break its hourly resistance at 1.2971 (25/09/2012) last Friday. It is now testing again its 200 day moving average and the shortterm up trendline. Key horizontal support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012 low).
The lack of a base formation or sell-off suggests that the recent Euro strength is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.
