Today just a brief update.
So far the "working" map is fitting in accordance with my preferred short-term scenario, which calls for a retracement of the June's up leg.
Last Sunday I highlighted 3 possible EWP.
Today I remove the wave (C) off the September 25 lower high option; the other two candidates are equally balanced.
Potential short-term paths from the September 14 high:
1. Zig Zag:
Therefore yesterday, price should have begun the wave (C) down. The wave (C) has an extension target in the range 1413-1386.
2. Triple Zig Zag:
Therefore yesterday price should have begun the third Zig Zag (ABC) down.
Yesterday's reversal at the 0.618 retracement after having completed a Double Zig Zag is strongly suggesting that he bounce off last Wednesday's lod is over, although there is no confirmation yet since the sequence of higher lows is still in place.
Bears today have to round off yesterday's bearish set up with follow through to the down side.
The consensus is looking for an overall shallow pullback with a target at 1422 - 50 d MA = 1419. Then maybe 2 lower ranges could come into play:
- 1419 - 1396
- 1396 - 1371
If, as I expect, there is soon a break down below 1430 instead of guessing where price will establish a bottom, we need to see:
- A completed EWP.
- Positive divergences.
- Extreme oversold readings of TRIN / TICK
- High CPCE reading.
- Fear ==> VIX closer to its 200 d MA .
Conclusion:
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The internal structure of the pullback off the September 14 high is strongly suggesting that price is ONLY involved in unfolding a corrective pattern that once is over it will open the door to the resumption of the intermediate up trend.
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The potential target is located in the range:
- 1. 50 d MA - 1396
- 2. 1396 - 1371
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The catalyst for the next "take off" could be the announcement of the Spanish bailout, but earning season is also approaching, hence price may adopt a holding pattern.
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The immediate time frame is bearish biased since we don't have a completed EWP off the September 14 high.
