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The State of the Trend

The trend is up in all time frames: daily, weekly and monthly.

During the last couple of weeks our focus was on two things: the 1450 level and waiting for the market breadth cycle to turn around. They both proved their relevance and provided us with needed guidance to stay on the right side of the market.

1450 acted as intraday support/resistance many times during the past five days, while market internals started improving and, as we expected, kept the SPX and OEX trend intact:

We mentioned something else, however, and that was weak Election year seasonality, which points to sideways/down movement until the end of October. Keeping in mind seasonality, and the fact that our market breadth indicator has reached overbought levels, it should come as no surprise that the SP500 couldn't break through double top resistance at 1470 despite a favorable jobs report:

For next week we'll keep a close eye on 1450 - 1470 for signs of a short-term break-out/break-down. And we will remain fairly optimistic as long as the SPX trades above 1430.


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