• 14 hours Are More Stock Splits On The Horizon In The Tech Sector?
  • 18 hours How COVID-19 Could Change Elections Forever
  • 1 day Mexico Kickstarts War On Junk Food
  • 2 days How America Could Go Green Right Now
  • 3 days Russian Prestige And American Politics: The COVID Vaccine Race
  • 3 days Is The Silver Rally Over Or Just Getting Started?
  • 4 days Alibaba-Backed Tesla Competitor Set To IPO In The U.S.
  • 4 days Emerging Economies Could Get Left Behind In Race For COVID Vaccine
  • 4 days Dead Malls Could Be Amazon’s Next Target
  • 5 days Unpacking Biden's Energy Plan
  • 5 days Russia Aims To Become World's Top Gold Producer
  • 5 days Global Tech Stocks On Edge Over Trump TikTok Ban
  • 6 days Cobalt Squeeze Threatens The Electric Vehicle Boom
  • 6 days COVID Has Sparked A Surge In Cybercrime
  • 7 days Precious Metals Bulls Still Have Plenty Of Room To Run
  • 7 days The U.S. Has The Tech To Go Green, But Will It Use It?
  • 8 days Massive Losses Force Russian Commodities Giant To Slash Dividends
  • 8 days Markets Up On Stimulus Hope
  • 9 days UK To Invest In Europe's First Geothermal Lithium Recovery Plant
  • 9 days TikTok Takes Center Stage In US-China Tech War
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

Last week we noted that market breadth is topping out, and the next cyclical downswing of this indicator should exert more pressure on the market. We also pointed out that once the SPX breaks below the September - October lows, support will likely come in at the 1400 - 1407 level, which is the next confluence zone as defined by Fibonacci, Gann and Hurst methods.

The chart below shows that after the breakdown on Tuesday, the the SPX lows were confined in the 1400 - 1407 range:

The market breadth cycle continues to follow closely the dominant fixed cycle and the next upswing is expected to stem the decline in stocks. We also acontinue to monitor the similarities with the April-May consolidation and subsequent decline, and keep an eye on the Election year cycle.

For a change of pace, however, we'll include a Dow based forecast this week. Since 2012 is drawing to a close, there is plenty of data allowing to perform a meaningful correlation analysis with previous years. We'll go back to 1886 to be exact. And this is what we get:

The correlation coefficient is shown in % format, and years with the highest correlation to the Target year (in this case 2012) have green background.

Two things stand out. The crystal clear view of which years from 120+ years of Dow history are a close match to 2012. And, how fast and easy it is to perform such a time consuming analysis. All you need to do is to type in the Target year, and the DJIA History add-on to the OT Seasonal app does the rest.

In addition, you can chart up to 20 years along with the Target year, as well as an average of the years you're comparing the Target year to. In the case of 2012, this is the result, showing the average and the 2012 only:

Averaging blindly that many years from different market stages and cycles may not be the best and most practical approach to preparing a forecast, but it highlights the capabilities of the app. Once the DJIA History add-on to OT Seasonal becomes available in iTunes (very shortly, we hope), users will be able to experiment with countless other combinations.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment