"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 16 hours Why Are Investors Overlooking Gold Stocks?
  • 17 hours The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B
  • 18 hours Super-Cycles: Why Gold Is Set For A Breakout
  • 19 hours U.S. Sanctions Russia For Election Meddling And Cyberattacks
  • 20 hours Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign
  • 21 hours How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
  • 22 hours Amazon’s Japan HQ Raided In Anti-Monopoly Push
  • 1 day Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?
  • 2 days Morgan Stanley’s Top 10 Short-Term Stock Picks
  • 2 days China: The Land Of The Ultra-Rich
  • 2 days Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing
  • 2 days What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?
  • 2 days SEC And IRS Take An Aggressive Stance On Cryptocurrencies
  • 2 days Bears And Bulls Face Off In Gold Markets
  • 2 days Bitcoin Is Winning Over The Housing Market
  • 2 days Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger
  • 3 days Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?
  • 3 days Bitcoin And Banking: The Next Mobile Payment Revolution
  • 3 days SEC Cracks Down On Silicon Valley’s “Disruptive Tech”
  • 3 days Wyoming Eliminates All Taxation On Gold And Silver
Why Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing?

Why Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing?

Markets rallied on news showing…

Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing

Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba saw…

Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Positive job growth and confident…

Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

More Info

Canada's Job Market Tightens in October, What Does That Portend

An article Friday reported that in October Canada added only a net 1,800 jobs when economists had been expecting a net gain of 10,000. This where 37,000 government jobs were added in October. The offset is found in a:

  • loss of 20,000 private sector jobs in October; and,

  • 15,000 reduction in self-employed persons.

Concurrently, the work force is said to have increased by 18,000. It is coincident that 18,000 is a multiple of 1,800 where those two numbers pertain to different statistics. In tabular form:


Government jobs added   37,000
Private sector jobs lost 20,000  
Reduction in self-employed 15,000 35,000
Net new jobs (rounded)   2,000
Expected new jobs 10,000  
Work Force Increase   18,000
Net new unemployed   16,000


Consider the following:

  • no economy can progress and grow on the back of public sector jobs;

  • October is a month where seasonally in Canada there ought to be increased jobs activity, not decreased jobs activity. This as contrasted to the late spring and the summer months where one would better understand seasonal lows in job creation;

  • Canada's unemployment rate held at 7.4%, with the youth unemployment rate (persons under 25) reported to be 14.7%. The latter can't be seen as good, although it is certainly better than the horrid youth unemployment rates in some other countries. For example the 27 country European Union youth unemployment rate average is now 22.8%, and in Greece, France, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom currently rings in at 55.6%, 25.7% 34.5%, 35.1%, 54.2% and 20.4% respectively;

  • the October loss in private sector jobs in Canada is a 'red flag', and if that continues into November and beyond Canada's economic buoyancy and 'broad isolation from the world's economic problems' broadly experienced to date is likely to be short-lived from here; and,

  • in the U.S. the broadly quoted number of 'monthly net new employed' needed just to keep up with population increases is about 125,000. Adopting the usual 10:1 Canada/U.S. population ratio, even Canadian economist estimates for October would have fallen short of the U.S. equivalency minimum, as 10 X 10,000 is only 80% of 150,000. 10 X 1,800 (October net Canadian reported job creation) is but 18,000. Imagine what would happen to President Obama's election chances tomorrow night if the U.S. Labor Department had reported 18,000 net new U.S. job creations in October, instead of the 171,000 it did report.

In the past few weeks I have said on more than one occasion that I don't think Canadian's should be complacent, nor should they adopt an 'it can't happen here' attitude as they smugly watch what is happening in the Eurozone and the United States.

Canada seems to be approaching a stoplight that has turned orange - or so I think - and if you are a Canadian with your wealth in the financial markets I suggest you keep your antenna up and your radar screen 'on bright'.

Topical References: Canada's labour pains not over yet, experts say, from The Financial Post, John Shmuel, November 2, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes. Also read:


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter