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The State of the Trend

Last week we suggested that despite positive seasonals, the SPX will have trouble overcoming resistance at the 1420 - 1425 level. After testing this zone twice, the index finished the week just below it:


The chart above shows that the index has little room to wiggle, and next week should bring either a breakout above resistance, or a breakdown from the uptrending channel.

Part of the uncertainty associated with the next move of the SPX stems from the fact that there is a real tug-of-war going on between the other two major U.S. indices. While the DJIA has already broken above its recent highs:


The NDX is in an even weaker position than the SPX, thanks in large part to APPL.

The last couple of weeks the SPX has started the week in negative territory, only to rebound on Wednesday. From a seasonal point of view, the market is entering one of its worst weeks of the year:

However, there is a FOMC meeting on the 11th and 12th , with positive bias going into it, and any decisive and coordinated market move is likely to be delayed until after the meeting.


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