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The State of the Trend

Last week we pointed out that weak seasonals and the FOMC meeting may cause the market to move in opposite directions. The indices surged ahead of the FOMC meeting and sold off afterwards.

The duration and the size of the moves in both directions were well within the norm for the average swing cycle and size for the last 6 months, as measured by OddsTrader:

After peaking on Dec. 12th market breadth is deteriorating and, at the current rate, is likely to bottom out mid-week:

As long as the SPX stays above 1400, bulls can hope that it is embarking on a more sustainable trend, similar to that of the December '11 - March '12 rally. A drop to 1390 will coincide with channel support and be consistent with a rate of advance similar to the June - September '12 rally:

 

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