• 526 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 527 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 528 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 928 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 933 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 935 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 938 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 938 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 939 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 941 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 941 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 945 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 945 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 946 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 948 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 949 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 952 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 953 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 953 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 955 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

China: Slowest Growth in 13 Years

A report this morning says that China's 2012 GDP growth was 7.8%, with year/year Q4 2012 GDP growth of 7.9%.

There are a number of issues to consider:

  • China's continued economic growth has become critical to world economic growth, as developed economy growth continues to lag;

  • the report says that Q4 2012 growth was in part a function of infrastructure spending in China. Infrastructure spending, while a contributor to GDP, is not spending that sees immediate change in economic day/day activity. Rather, it is spending that ought to support and contribute to longer term economic growth as a country's economy expands based in part on the incremental infrastructure that is an enabler of that;

  • absent China's continued economic growth at high percentage levels, and 7.8% qualifies as a 'high percentage level', the world's developed economies will not grow even at their current low rates - which low rates in many cases impute little or no 'real growth', but only inflationary growth. This is particularly important for resource based economies Australia and Canada, because China's growth affects the growth of their economies both directly - and indirectly by impacting the growth rates of their non-China trading partners; and,

  • irrespective of whether it is China's or any other country economy, percentage growth is a problematic concept. This is because percentage growth is measured on a continuously compounding base of economic activity. Simply stated, it is much easier to grow in absolute terms from 100 units to 110 units than it is to grow from 1,000 units to 1,100 units - yet both are stated as a 10% increase.

China's growth rate is a critical world economic metric, and one that requires continuous focus by traders and investors.

You might also want to read China's economy sees weakest growth in 13 years, which among other things says: "The country's economy is widely seen as having matured to the point where the growth model of the past, including public spending for big ticket infrastructure projects, must be modified".

Topical References: China's economy posts slowest growth since 1999, from Reuters, Kevin Yao and Aileen Wang, January 18, 2013 - reading time 4 minutes. Also read China's economy sees weakest growth in 13 years, from The Telegraph, January 18, 2013 - reading time 3 minutes.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment